Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Level Since Early 2021

Yields decline slightly on economic data. Yet another weak consumer confidence report spurred a decline in Treasury yields today, though the move was immaterial. Yields declined 1-3 bps across the curve, partially offsetting yesterday’s 7-9 bp rise. Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined this morning after the US announced a ceasefire was reached between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea, though prices rebounded throughout the afternoon to close nearly flat on the session. Brent crude fell to a low of $72.50 per barrel but closed above $73 per barrel while WTI fell near $68.50 but closed at $69 per barrel.

Consumer confidence falls to a multi-year low. Today’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence data cast another light on how heightened uncertainty about the future is weighing on consumers. The overall confidence index fell from 100.1 in February to 92.9 in March, below expectations of a slightly more muted decline to 94. The results placed consumer confidence at its lowest level since February 2021, largely due to fears of renewed inflation stemming from a global shift to protectionist trade policies. The deterioration was observed across most index subcategories; per the press release, consumers’ views of current conditions, expectations for the future, and optimism about future income all deteriorated.

Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The White House announced today that Russia and Ukraine agreed to a truce to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” Furthermore, the US stated that Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin would work to establish the energy infrastructure ceasefire that had been discussed a few weeks ago. Russia later confirmed the Black Sea agreement but said that the deal will be contingent on lifting sanctions on banks and companies involved in agricultural exports, which had not been mentioned in US statements. The lack of clarity on the contingency contributed to the rebound in oil prices throughout the afternoon, though the announcements are generally viewed as positive developments.