Daily Market Color

Disappointing Chinese Data and Weakness from Glencore and Volkswagen Weigh on Risk Assets

Risk assets opened the week under pressure off the back of renewed global growth concerns.  The main driver was a report showing profits at China’s major industrial firms plummeted in August, producing the largest YoY decline since the start of the data series in 2011.  The biggest drops were concentrated in producers of coal, oil and metals, and adds to recent signs of weakness for the world’s second largest economy.  Adding to the bearish sentiment, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said the fund is likely to revise down estimates for global growth due to underperformance from emerging economies.  The IMF is due to release updated economic forecasts in October, where they will now be expected to slash the 3.3% growth forecast for this year and 3.8% for 2016.  Lagarde did say the revised forecasts should remain above the 3% threshold, however.

This is a busy week for data in the US, headlined by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.  Monday’s economic releases were generally in line with expectations, but the larger-than-expected gain in consumer spending was well-received by those who feel the economy can support an interest rate hike this year.  NY Fed President Dudley is one of those proponents, and he spoke to that this morning in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.  Dudley’s comments were aligned with the views from Fed Chair Yellen last week and several other FOMC members who have made public comments since the September FOMC.  Dudley said the Fed will “probably” raise rate this year despite international headwinds and slower US growth in the second half of the year.  He said that they are monitoring the situation in China, but that external forces would only influence decision making if they impeded the Fed’s progress on its goals for 2% inflation and maximum employment.

Ready to start a conversation?

We offer free consultations and platform demos.

Let's Talk