Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Yields rise on weak consumer sentiment, higher inflation expectations. Rate movement was relatively muted today as yields traded in a 3-5 bp range for the entirety of the session. UST yields gradually crept higher overall, with weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data combined with increased UMich long-term inflation expectations helping to keep yields elevated. The 2-year yield

Yields fall after CPI meets estimates and jobless claims rise. UST yields fell to intraday lows in the aftermath of today’s CPI print and weak jobless claims data. CPI came in as expected across most readings, and initial jobless claims (263k in the week that ended September 6th) hit the highest level since October 2021, well

Surprise drop in PPI pushes yields lower. UST yields traded in a tight range this morning until August PPI data came in below expectations and July’s prints saw a downward revision. In the aftermath, yields gradually declined as the cool inflation report supports the Fed resuming rate cuts. In the last few hours of the session,

Yields higher as markets await tomorrow’s inflation prints. UST yields were little changed this morning ahead of payrolls data, which saw the worst-ever downward revision to nonfarm payrolls on record. Rates rose in the immediate aftermath of the revision and throughout the afternoon despite the troubling print, with markets largely turning focus to tomorrow’s inflation data.

Yields decline ahead of this week’s inflation data. UST yields traded lower across the curve today as markets continued to digest Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data. 2-year yields hovered near their lowest level since 2022, while 10-year yields hit their lowest level since April. The 2-year yield ultimately closed 2 bps lower at 3.49%, the 10-year yield

Yields fall on weak labor data. UST yields fell 5-8 bps in the immediate aftermath of a strong miss in nonfarm payrolls data (22k actual vs. 75k expected) and a minor uptick in the unemployment rate (4.3%). Yields slightly reversed the move as markets continued to digest the data over the remainder of the session, with

Yields lower ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data. UST yields fell today as markets digested soft ADP employment data ahead of upcoming labor data.  Tomorrow’s release is expected to show nonfarm payrolls grew by 75k in August vs 73k in July, and the unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.2% to 4.3% on the month. 2-year

Soft jobs data pushes yields lower. UST yields rose ~2 bps this morning but quickly declined to intraday lows after US job openings came in ~200k below expectations. The weak labor data fueled bets for 2025 rate cuts, and Fed Funds futures now have a September move priced in as 95% likely. The 2-year yield closed

Record £14B UK debt issuance fuels global bond sell-off. UST yields rose 7 bps at the long end of the curve this morning, largely driven by concerns about elevated global debt issuance. The UK is in the spotlight following today’s record £14B 10-year note auction, which pushed the 30-year Gilt yield to its highest level

Yield curve steepens following PCE, consumer sentiment data. Today’s inflation print fueled a UST sell-off after core YoY PCE hit its highest level since February. However, policy-sensitive yields declined after UMich consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data were lower than expected. The 2-year yield closed 1bp lower at 3.62%, a 10 bp decline on the week.