Nonfarm Payrolls Looms Ahead of the Upcoming FOMC Meeting

Rates close nearly unchanged as markets await payrolls data. Tomorrow’s labor market data should play a significant role in the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, which will be announced on December 18th. Rates were little changed with all attention geared toward the data, with the short end of the curve up 1-2 bps and the long end down 1 bp. Lower-than-expected continuing jobless claims figures contributed to a ~3 bp rise this morning before rates reversed course into the session’s close. In crypto markets, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $103.5k today after Trump nominated crypto advocate Paul Atkins for SEC chair.

Government labor data to foreshadow FOMC meeting. November labor data (released tomorrow) will cap a week of releases that have pointed to an orderly labor market stabilization and offered clarity around October’s figures that were distorted by natural disasters and labor strikes. Payrolls growth is expected to climb by 208k from October while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Tomorrow’s results could be a key driver of the Fed’s December meeting decision; if the results are near forecasts, market expectations of a 25bp cut could come closer to fruition.

OPEC+ defers crude supply increases for three more months. OPEC+ members decided to delay increased crude oil production today by three months after coordinated curbs in crude oil production that have persisted throughout the year. Eight OPEC+ members will extend their 2.2 million barrel-per-day (bpd) voluntary production cuts into April 2025, whereas the previous plan was to unwind the cuts in January. In addition, several members postponed the unwinding of a separate 1.7 million bpd cut until the end of 2025. Despite the delays, crude oil prices fell today, with WTI down 0.4% and Brent falling 0.3%.