Daily Market Color

One More Day of Yellen Testimony and Brexit Uncertainty

Global markets are stronger today and the Pound Sterling is hitting a new 5 month high vs. the Dollar as the markets are believe a vote against Brexit will be the outcome tomorrow. With one day remaining until the big vote, the Brexit speculation continues to be the major focal point for the financial markets. While the most recent polls show the vote is very close or with a slight edge to the “Leave” camp, the betting markets show a 75% chance of “Remain” winning the day. This result would be viewed as a positive outcome for stabilizing financial markets and avoiding a potential severe economic shock resulting from a British break from the European Union.

Yellen’s first day of Humphrey-Hawkins testimony yesterday did not reveal any new major FOMC insights, and her second day of testimony today is expected to be similarly unspectacular. There were a number of housing indicators released this morning, including the Housing Price Index, which was up a less-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (and 5.9% year-over-year), while Existing Home Sales were up 1.8% month-over-month, in line with market expectations.

The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all currently trading up fractionally. Treasury yields and swap rates are generally flat on the day so far, while Brent and WTI Crude are holding above the $50 level. In the foreign exchange markets, the Euro and Pound Sterling are firmer and the US Dollar and Yen are generally trading down about 0.5% against other major currencies.

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