Daily Market Color

Risk Off Sentiment Continues Ahead of FOMC / Brexit Vote

US stocks are opening the week lower while Treasurys are rallying across the curve for the 5th day in a row, as investors remain cautious ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting and next week’s UK referendum.  The British pound continued its recent decline against the US dollar after various weekend polls showed the Brexit vote on June 23rd could go either way.  Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the Governor of the Bank of France, became the latest prominent economist to warn against the “leave” vote.  He warned that voting to leave the EU would cause global financial market instability and could jeopardize London’s role as one of the top financial capitals of the world. 

While the Brexit vote continues to dominate the financial market headlines, the Fed and underlying US fundamentals are also driving investor sentiment.  There are no notable US economic data reported today, but activity picks up starting tomorrow with retail sales and industrial production on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday, and housing starts on Friday.  Also on Wednesday the Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting, which will include the June statement, updated FOMC rate forecasts, and Yellen’s post-FOMC press conference.
All three major US stock indexes are currently down between 0.25% and 0.50%, while Treasury yields and swap rates are 1-4 bps lower across all major maturities.  Both WTI and Brent crude trade down close to 0.50% off the back of the stronger dollar and global growth concerns.   

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