Daily Market Color

Woes Continue for Oil and Chinese Equity Markets

US stocks fluctuated while Treasury yields and swap rates traded marginally higher across the curve as markets digested another volatile session in China.  Despite a higher peg for the yuan for the second consecutive trading day, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.3% overnight, bringing its 2016 loss to 14.8%.  Had Chinese regulators not suspended the use of a circuit-breaker designed to control panic selling, trading would have at least been temporarily halted intraday amid the sell-off.  Oil traded under pressure with WTI crude currently trading below $32/barrel.  WTI crude is down around 11% so far in 2016 and market pundits believe the end of the rout is not yet in sight.  Morgan Stanley is calling for oil as low as $20/barrel off the back of a rapid appreciation of the US dollar and continued excess supply.

The US data calendar is light today to kick off the week, but noteworthy data picks up tomorrow headlined by one of Fed Chair Yellen’s favorite indicators, the JOLTS Job Openings report.  Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (dove, non-voter) and Dallas Fed President Kaplan (dove, non-voter) are both scheduled to speak today, and Alcoa unofficially kicks off corporate earnings season after the close.  Corporate issuance is expected to pick back up this week and needs to be absorbed along with scheduled Treasury supply, with 3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds all planned for auction this week.

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