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Rates Climb Ahead of Inauguration Day

Yields rise to end a week of declines. U.S. Treasury yields were ~2-5 bps higher across the curve today on a relatively light economic calendar. Today’s movements capped a week of softer inflation data, which revived hopes that disinflation may not have completely stalled. The 10-year yield ended the week at ~4.63%, ~15 bps lower than
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Fed Governor Waller Won’t Rule Out a March Rate Cut

Rates sink following dovish Fed commentary. Yields rose overnight and were 2-3 bps above opening levels this morning until Fed Governor Christopher Wallersuggested that favorable economic data could allow for rate cuts in the first half of the year.The short end of the yield curve fell ~5 bps following Waller’s comments and closed nearly 8
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Core CPI Decelerates In December

Yields plummet following soft inflation print. Consumer inflation slowed from November to December, the first month of year-over-year deceleration since July. Yields declined 3-15 bps as a result, with most of the move occurring just after the data release this morning. Markets expect that the relatively cool inflation data could drive the Fed to cut rates
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Producer Inflation Data Offers Hope for Doves

Yields trade within a tight range on PPI day. Treasury yield volatility was modest in today’s trading session despite the release of PPI data that was lower than expected across all readings. The inflation data fueled an immediate ~3 bp decline at the short end of the yield curve, and yields were little changed throughout the
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Markets Expect Only One 2025 Rate Cut Following Strong Labor Data

Yields soar on strong labor market data. The short end of the yield curve rose 10 bps in the immediate aftermath of this morning’s labor data, which showed robust hiring and a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate. Yields closed 2-13 bps higher across a flattening curve, with 2-year and 10-year yields now at 4.38%
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US Hiring Growth is Expected to Have Slowed in December

Yields close nearly flat in a shortened trading session. There was little volatility in bond markets today with most attention geared toward tomorrow’s labor data, which is expected to show slowed hiring growth from November (227k jobs added) to December (165k jobs added).  Yields closed 1-2 bps lower after trading within a 3 bp range,
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Rates Continue Along Upward Trajectory

Yields rise following strong U.S. economic data. This morning’s robust U.S. services sector data drove the short end of the yield curve to rise 5 bps to intraday highs. Yields then grinded lower into the market close, finishing the day 2-6 bps higher across a steepening curve. The 10-year yield (4.69%) is nearly 40 bps above
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Bank Stocks Rise After Fed’s Michael Barr Resigns While Trump Backs Universal Tariffs

Yields close nearly unchanged while bank stocks rally on deregulation optimism. The yield curve steepened slightly today, with the short end of the curve down 1 bp while the long end rose 2-4 bps. Lower than expected US PMI and durable goods orders had an immaterial impact on yields, which traded within a 6 bp
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Rates Climb on Fedspeak and Upbeat Manufacturing Data

Yields driven higher by strong economic data, hawkish Fed commentary. Treasury yields rose 2-4 bps throughout the session, largely fueled by stronger than expected U.S. manufacturing data. Fed President Thomas Barkin also contributed after he stated that he thinks “there is more upside risk than downside risk” to inflation while adding that he would “put myself
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US Manufacturing Sector Contracts Again While Yields Close Little Changed

Yields close nearly flat in the first session of 2025. Treasury yields traded within a 6-8 bp range today but closed within 2 bps of opening levels. Better-than-expected jobless claims and US manufacturing figures had a negligible impact on yields, which rose gradually this morning before falling slightly into the close. The short end of
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