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Long Term Yields Decline Following Comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent

Yields continue gradual decline. Treasury yields fell 1-4 bps across a flattening curve today, largely driven by Treasury Secretary Bessent, who stated that re-allocation into longer term Treasurys is unattractive in the current environment. 2-year and 10-year yields are currently at 4.27% and 4.51%, respectively, with the spread between the two now just over +23
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FOMC Minutes Indicate the Fed May Slow Its Bond Runoff

Rates decline slightly on news that the Fed may slow quantitative tightening. The policy-sensitive short end of the yield curve declined ~4 bps today, largely driven by FOMC minutes that revealed the Fed has concerns about aggressive quantitative tightening. Fed Funds futures-implied odds for just one 25 bp rate cut in 2025 have increased over
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USA-Russia Negotiations Fuel a Risk-On Session

Rates rise on USA-Russia negotiations. Markets were generally risk-on today following news that the US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential end to the war in Ukraine. The US State Department said that the two sides left the meeting with the goal to end the conflict “as soon as possible in
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Consumers Pare Spending in January

Yields fall on weak consumer spending. UST yields fell 4-6 bps across the curve today following data that showed a sharp retail sales contraction in January. The data came after multiple strong inflation prints this week, and offered some support for a Fed cut in 2025. Both the 2- and 10-year yields closed ~5 bps lower
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PPI Follows CPI’s Hot Footsteps

Yields plummet despite another hot inflation print. Markets generally shrugged off January’s producer inflation print, which was higher than expected across all but one measure but showed price declines across most categories that feed into PCE. The short end of the yield curve dropped 5 bps in the immediate aftermath of the data release, and
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Inflation Climbs In January

Yields soar following hot inflation data. January CPI was higher than expected across all measures, largely offsetting momentum gained from last month’s slowdown in core readings. Yields soared ~10 bps in the immediate aftermath of the print and were little changed throughout the remainder of the session. Yields closed 7-10 bps higher across most of the
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Markets Prepare for CPI Tomorrow

Rates rise slightly ahead of CPI tomorrow. Treasury yields rose 1-4 bps across a steepening curve today in a relatively quiet session. Most of the move occurred overnight, and yields were fairly stable throughout the remainder of the session. Chair Powell’s relatively hawkish testimony to Congress had an immaterial impact on yields, with most attention geared
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Trade Wars Continue: President Trump Announces Additional Tariffs

Yields close nearly flat in a quiet rates session. Treasury yields declined overnight but grinded higher throughout the late morning and afternoon, ultimately closing within 2 bps of opening levels. Potential inflationary pressures associated with new tariffs on steel and aluminum contributed to the climb in yields. 2-year and 10-year yields are now at 4.28%
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Labor Markets Prove Resilient Once Again

Rates climb after January labor release. U.S. Treasury yields rose ~6-8 bps today after largely positive January labor data and prior-year revisions heightened concerns about persistent inflation. The 2-year yield ended the day ~8 bps higher at ~4.29%, while the 10-year yield closed ~6 bps higher at ~4.50%. Equities fell throughout the day after a report
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Labor Data is Expected to Show Slowed Hiring Growth in January

Rates little changed ahead of labor data. Treasury market volatility was largely absent today with most attention geared toward tomorrow’s labor figures, which are expected to show slowed hiring growth in January.Yields traded within a 4 bp range and closed 1-3 bps higher, a slight reversal of yesterday’s 1-11 bp decline. The spread between 2-year
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