Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Rates rise moderately while Nvidia earnings slightly disappoints. Ukraine’s use of UK-supplied cruise missiles against Russia did little to sway swap rates today, which closed 2-3 bps higher across the curve. A weak $16B auction of 20-year Treasury notes contributed slightly to the rise in rates; 20 and 30-year Treasury yields rose ~3 bps in

Russia-Ukraine war pushes rates lower. Swap rates declined ~8 bps overnight on rising geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia. However, growing concerns were largely downplayed by U.S. officials, which drove a gradual rate climb throughout the remainder of the session. Treasury yields closed 1-3 bps lower across most of the curve. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose

Rates fall slightly while crude oil prices surge on geopolitical tensions. Swap rates declined 1-3bps across most of the curve today in a quiet rates session. Reports that the U.S. will allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia captured headlines and fueled a crude oil rally. WTI crude rose 3.19% to over $69 per barrel

Rates close little changed following mixed economic data. Swap rates spiked to intraday highs after September retail sales were revised significantly above original estimates. The 2-year yield nearly reached 4.40% while the 10-year yield crested above 4.50%. However, rates reversed course shortly thereafter and closed 5-8bps below their session highs. Fed President Goolsbee contributed to

Swap curve steepens following inflation print. Swap rates and Treasury yields plummeted ~10 bps at the front end of the curve in the immediate aftermath of this morning’s CPI data, which matched estimates across all readings. However, longer-term concerns about elevated inflation led to a reversal in rates throughout the afternoon. The front end of the

Swap rates soar ahead of CPI data. Resurgent momentum from the “Trump trade” and an expectation that tomorrow’s CPI may show accelerating year-over-year inflation drove swap rates up 6-13bps across the curve. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to its highest level since November 2022, now just below 1,280. Bitcoin bounced back after an overnight

The rate curve flattened to close out a volatile week. Swap rates rose by 4-6 bps at the front end of the curve today, pushed higher by strong consumer sentiment data, while the long end fell ~4 bps. Today’s price movements extended the week’s curve inversion: the short end of the curve rose 5-7 basis

Rates fall dramatically on FOMC day. Rates reversed course today and closed 5-12 bps lower across a flattening curve after yesterday’s election-fueled 10-20 bp climb. The Fed delivered a fully priced-in 25 bp rate cut and market reaction to Powell’s presser was largely muted. Meanwhile, equities continued to rally, with the S&P 500 (+0.74%) and NASDAQ

Swap rates surge following Trump’s win. President-elect Donald Trump’s platform has been associated with both strong growth and inflationary pressures, and the Republican party’s likely congressional sweep increased the odds that his proposals are implemented. In turn, market reactions to the election results were pronounced across asset classes. Fed readies for Trump. The Fed is set to

Election day produces a volatile rates session. Swap rates rose ~3 bps overnight and climbed another ~5 bps to intraday highs after the release of strong US services sector data. Rates then reversed course as markets shifted attention back to the presidential election. Rates fell 6-9 bps throughout the afternoon and closed nearly unchanged. Meanwhile, the