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Daily Market Color
March 18, 2024
Swap Rates Hit 2024 Highs
Swap rates rise to 2024 highs ahead of this week’s policy meetings. Swap rates are set for a busy week as the Fed, BOE, and BOJ prepare to announce policy decisions, though only the BOJ is expected to change their policy rate. Swap rates rose slightly ahead of the BOJ’s announcement tomorrow, with most rates
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Daily Market Color
March 15, 2024
Markets Price in Delayed Rate Cuts Ahead of March Fed Meeting
Equities fall on quarterly market event. The SP500 and NASDAQ fell ~0.6% and ~0.9%, respectively, as a confluence of expiring derivatives positions known as the quarterly “triple witching” event largely drove today’s heightened market activity. UST yields were generally unchanged immediately following data releases this morning but ended the day ~2-4bps higher across the long end
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Daily Market Color
March 14, 2024
Long-Term Rates Rise 10bps After Another Hot Inflation Print
Swap rates soar after inflation data reveals elevated levels. Today’s Producer Price Index data pushed swap rates 6-10bps higher by market close. Rates are now 30-55bps higher year-to-date, with the largest gains coming in the belly of the curve. Initial market reaction to the morning data was mixed after retail sales were lower than expected
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Daily Market Color
March 13, 2024
PPI and Retail Sales on Deck
Rates rise ahead of more inflation data. Swap rates grinded 3-5bps higher ahead of tomorrow’s eagerly anticipated economic data. The swap curve bear flattened as strong demand at today’s 30y UST auction pulled long-term rates ~2bps lower in the afternoon. Attention has shifted toward tomorrow’s retail sales and PPI data, where the former is expected
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Daily Market Color
March 12, 2024
Core CPI Reaches its Lowest Level Since 2021 But Remains Elevated
Rates rise as CPI declines less than anticipated. Swap rates rose 3-6bps afterCPI came in above forecasts. The move took some time to manifest, as rates were initially lower after the inflation data release. However, concerns about stagnating progress to 2% inflation pushed rates higher throughout the afternoon, while weak demand at a $39B 10y
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Daily Market Color
March 11, 2024
Core CPI Expected to Fall to Multiyear Lows
Rates rise ahead of CPI data. Swap rates/Treasury yields rose 1-6bps to start the week ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data. High bond issuance (nearly 15 corporate issuers today and a $56B 3y UST auction) largely drove the increase in rates, as supply overwhelmed demand. Meanwhile, equities dropped in a continuation of last week’s sell-off, as
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Daily Market Color
March 8, 2024
Labor Data Boosts Soft-Landing Hopes as Equity Markets Wobble
UST yields drop after February labor data. Today’s labor data showed a strong but cooling economy, pushing policy-sensitive 2-year UST yields down nearly 10bps after the release, while the 10-year declined ~5 bps. UST yields climbed throughout the rest of the day, ending ~1-3 bps lower on the long-end of the curve. Equities declined on the
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Daily Market Color
March 7, 2024
Central Bankers Talk Cuts, Driving Rates Down
Rates decline after multiple central banks signal momentum toward rate cuts. Chair Powell and the ECB made comments that suggest rate cuts may be on the horizon, where the latter forced short-term swap rates immediately lower by ~4bps. Powell said that the Fed is “not far” from the confidence level to ease policy, while the ECB
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Daily Market Color
March 6, 2024
Powell Maintains 2024 Rate Cut Expectation
Rates decline as Chair Powell testimony begins. Chair Powell’s testimony pushed swap rates lower as he reiterated his expectation for the Fed to cut rates “at some point this year.” The swap curve bull flattened today, with short term rates dropping ~1bp while the long end fell 5-6bps. ADP Employment Change data also contributed to
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Daily Market Color
March 5, 2024
First Round of This Week’s Economic Data Drives Yields Lower
Weak economic data spurs risk-off session. Declines in factory orders, durable goods orders, and ISM services from the prior month immediately sent swap rates ~5bps lower, leading to a 4-6bp decline on the day. Meanwhile, concerns of over-valuation led to a broad decline for equities, with the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 down 1.00-1.65% on the
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