Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Policy-sensitive yields continue to decline. Short-term UST yields gradually declined over the course of today’s session, largely driven by month-end positioning and without a clear catalyst. The short-end of the curve is now near or at YTD lows, with the 2-year yield (3.61%) down 7 bps today and 35 bps lower from late July. The spread

2-year yields drop on potential Cook removal, strong Treasury auction. Short-dated UST yields dropped and longer-dated yields rose at the market open on news that Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Cook. The decline at the front end was largely driven by speculation that her replacement is likely to be a more dovish voter, while the

Yields higher ahead of PCE. UST yields rose gradually this morning to intraday highs (up ~4 bps) before paring some of the move in the afternoon. The move was a slight reversal of Friday’s price action, where yields plummeted after Chair Powell hinted at a September rate cut. Ultimately, the 2-year yield closed 3 bps higher

Yields tumble on Powell’s dovish tone. Chair Powell emphasized downside labor market risks at today’s Jackson Hole symposium, which solidified expectations for a September rate cut and fueled an immediate 6-10 bp decline in yields. The yield curve steepened as rising September rate cut odds pushed the front-end of the curve down more sharply than the

Yields rise on strong economic data, hawkish Fed commentary. UST yields initially fell following jobless claims data, which reinforced the picture of a deteriorating labor market as continuing claims hit its highest level since November 2021. Shortly after, hot PMI data, which highlighted positive economic signals from the services and manufacturing sectors, dampened rate-cut expectations and

Yield movement limited as Fed remains concerned about inflation. UST yields gradually declined this morning after President Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign. The 2-year yield fell below 3.72% for the first time this week, but the move reversed course after FOMC meeting minutes underscored that policymakers viewed inflation risk as a greater

Yields decline ahead of Jackson Hole forum. UST yields fell today for the first time in three days, as traders anticipate a dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday and continue to price in high odds of a rate cut in September. Yields dropped 1-3 bps across the curve, with the 2-year

Yields inch higher ahead of the Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium. UST yields traded within a 4-6 bp range in a relatively quiet session today that was absent of key economic data. Markets are primarily awaiting commentary from the Economic Policy Symposium kicking off on Thursday, where Chair Powell is expected to detail the Fed’s new policy

Yields higher after retail sales advances. UST yields initially had a mixed reaction to July retail sales data, first rising ~2 bps before reversing course. Yields gradually climbed for the remainder of the session, and the 2-year yield closed 2 bps higher at 3.75% while 10-year and 30-year yields rose 3-5 bps to 4.32% and 4.92%,

Yields higher after PPI blows past estimates. UST yields jumped 5-6 bps higher in the immediate aftermath of today’s PPI data, which highlighted significant inflationary pressures in July. Despite a brief reversal, yields generally trended upwards for the remainder of the day as traders eased rate cut bets. Yields ultimately closed 4-6 bps higher across