Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Yields close largely unchanged despite FOMC minutes. UST yields declined 1-3 bps overnight but grinded higher throughout the remainder of the session, with the reversal partially driven by weak demand at today’s $39B 10-year auction. Soon after, September FOMC meeting minutes were released, but the generally mixed tone among policy voters had little impact on rates.

Yields fall slightly despite ongoing government shutdown, increased inflation expectations. UST yields edged lower throughout the session despite higher than expected NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations data, which rose to 3.38%, the highest in five months. Strong demand at a $58B 3-year treasury auction largely overshadowed the inflation data and fueled a 1-4 bp decline across

Longer-dated yields edge higher on European fiscal concerns. UST yields traded within a 4 bp range today as markets remained quiet amid the US government shutdown. The long-end of the curve saw relatively elevated volatility after France’s new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, announced his resignation. This comes as the politically fragmented French parliament refuses to compromise, heightening Lecornu’s

Yields climb higher as US government shutdown continues. Rate market volatility remained muted today as the government shutdown forced payrolls data to be postponed. However, ISM services data came in below estimates, highlighting a slowdown in the services industries, while prices remained elevated. Higher prices likely contributed to today’s climb in yields, where the 2-year

Yields close nearly flat. UST yields rose ~3 bps in the morning in a slight reversal of yesterday’s move, where rates closed 5-7 lower across the curve. In the afternoon, yields declined to opening levels and traded in a 1bp range for the remainder of the session. The 2-year yield ultimately closed nearly unchanged at 3.54%,

Yields plummet on weak labor data. UST yields fell ~6 bps in the aftermath of ADP employment data that highlighted a sharp decline in private-sector payrolls, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the end of this month. ISM manufacturing data was released shortly after and fell in line with expectations (49.1 actual vs.

Yields roughly unchanged after consumer confidence, labor data. UST yields fell ~2 bps immediately after this morning’s consumer confidence data, which was the weakest in five months, and JOLTS job openings data which were little changed from August, but the move later reversed and yields steadily climbed to end the day roughly unchanged. Today’s JOLTs

Yields end lower amid worries about a US government shutdown. UST yields were lower across the curve today as concerns increased over a possible government shutdown delaying key nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data to be released on Friday. In the meantime, markets look ahead to tomorrow’s JOLTS job openings data, which is expected to show

Yields end the day mixed. UST yields were little changed following today’s data releases which included core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as well as consumer spending data. Core PCE fell in line with expectations and, by avoiding a blowout, kept two more Fed rate cuts on the table through the end of the year.

Yields higher after strong U.S. economic data. UST yields climbed 5-6 bps after a slew of data which showed the fastest GDP growth (+3.8%) in two years, the lowest initial jobless claims (218k) since July, and durable goods orders growth (+2.9%) far above expectations (-0.3%). Taken together, the data pointed to a resilient U.S. economy. Markets