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Daily Market Color

Markets Expect Only One 2025 Rate Cut Following Strong Labor Data

Yields soar on strong labor market data. The short end of the yield curve rose 10 bps in the immediate aftermath of this morning’s labor data, which showed robust hiring and a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate. Yields closed 2-13 bps higher across a flattening curve, with 2-year and 10-year yields now at 4.38%
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US Hiring Growth is Expected to Have Slowed in December

Yields close nearly flat in a shortened trading session. There was little volatility in bond markets today with most attention geared toward tomorrow’s labor data, which is expected to show slowed hiring growth from November (227k jobs added) to December (165k jobs added).  Yields closed 1-2 bps lower after trading within a 3 bp range,
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Rates Continue Along Upward Trajectory

Yields rise following strong U.S. economic data. This morning’s robust U.S. services sector data drove the short end of the yield curve to rise 5 bps to intraday highs. Yields then grinded lower into the market close, finishing the day 2-6 bps higher across a steepening curve. The 10-year yield (4.69%) is nearly 40 bps above
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Bank Stocks Rise After Fed’s Michael Barr Resigns While Trump Backs Universal Tariffs

Yields close nearly unchanged while bank stocks rally on deregulation optimism. The yield curve steepened slightly today, with the short end of the curve down 1 bp while the long end rose 2-4 bps. Lower than expected US PMI and durable goods orders had an immaterial impact on yields, which traded within a 6 bp
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Rates Climb on Fedspeak and Upbeat Manufacturing Data

Yields driven higher by strong economic data, hawkish Fed commentary. Treasury yields rose 2-4 bps throughout the session, largely fueled by stronger than expected U.S. manufacturing data. Fed President Thomas Barkin also contributed after he stated that he thinks “there is more upside risk than downside risk” to inflation while adding that he would “put myself
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US Manufacturing Sector Contracts Again While Yields Close Little Changed

Yields close nearly flat in the first session of 2025. Treasury yields traded within a 6-8 bp range today but closed within 2 bps of opening levels. Better-than-expected jobless claims and US manufacturing figures had a negligible impact on yields, which rose gradually this morning before falling slightly into the close. The short end of
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Longer-Term Yields Rise to End 2024

Yield curve steepens in 2024’s last session. The long end of the yield curve rose ~4 bps today while the short end was nearly flat. The yield curve extended its steepest levels since June 2022, with the 10-year yield (4.57%) now 32 bps above the 2-year yield (4.24%). Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.38%
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Risk-Off Heading Into 2025

Rates plummet in a risk-off session. Swap rates declined gradually throughout the day and ended the session 3-10 bps lower across the curve. Weak Chicago business activity (36.9 versus 43.0 expected) data contributed slightly, though most of the rate decline occurred before the data release. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are now at 4.24% and
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Yields Climb to End a Relatively Quiet Week

Yield curve steepens in a quiet session. The long end of the yield curve climbed 4-5 bps today while the short end was nearly flat, extending this month’s steepening. The 2s10s Treasury yield spread is now near 30 bps, its widest since June 2022. On the week, the 10-year yield climbed over 10 bps to 4.62%,
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Continuing US Unemployment Claims Hits a 3+ Year High

Rates close nearly unchanged despite multi-year high in unemployment claims. Rates rose overnight and were 3-5 bps above opening levels this morning until strong demand at a $44B auction of 7-year Treasury notes drove a ~3 bp decline at 1 PM EST. Rates dropped slightly throughout the remainder of the afternoon and closed 1-2 bps
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