Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Yields decline sharply intraday but rebound in the afternoon. Treasury yields declined ~10 bps due to risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran-Israel war and dovish commentary from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. However, yields reversed course heading into the market close after Iran attacks on a US base in Qatar was viewed as a sign

Trade war fears, Fed commentary fuel Treasury yield decline. The Wall Street Journal reported today that the US may revoke waivers that allow global semiconductor manufacturers to ship American chip-making equipment to facilities in China without obtaining licenses. The report rekindled trade war concerns and risk-off sentiment, pushing the 2-year yield 3 bps lower to 3.91% and

Yields close little changed in FOMC day aftermath. Treasury market volatility was relatively muted ahead of today’s FOMC meeting announcement, with yields down just a few basis points across the curve. Yields then declined ~4 bps in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s decision but then reversed course shortly thereafter. Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments

Treasurys rise after Iran-Israel concerns reemerge. Markets were risk-on yesterday following reports that Iran was seeking to de-escalate the conflict with Israel, but price action reversed course today amid growing fears about a prolonged war. Demand for safe haven assets rose, with Treasury yields down 2-6 bps across a flattening curve. The 2-year yield closed at

Yields rise ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Concerns about a prolonged war in the Middle East subsided today, leading to a Treasury sell-off and an equity rally. Yields climbed 2-6 bps across a steepening curve, with the 2-year now at 3.97% and the 10-year at 4.45%. The former remains 5 bps below pre-CPI and PPI

Yield curve steepens following Iran-Israel attacks. After relatively weak CPI and PPI data eased nerves about tariff-driven price pressures, a new inflationary threat emerged: war in the Middle East. Oil prices surged in the aftermath of last night’s airstrikes, with Brent and WTI crude both rising ~7.5% today to $73-$75 per barrel. Markets fear that

Rates drop following another weak inflation print. After lower than expected CPI fueled bets for earlier Fed rate cuts yesterday, today’s PPI data continued the momentum. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield dropped to an intraday low of 3.87% and ultimately closed 4 bps lower on the day at 3.91%. Fed Funds futures now have a 25 bp rate

Rates decline on weak CPI. Treasury yields opened the day slightly higher following news from President Trump that a deal with China is imminent. However, yields quickly plummeted from intraday highs after this morning’s CPI data, which was generally lower than expected, making earlier Fed rate cuts more likely. The 2-year yield closed 7 bps lower

Yields close nearly flat ahead of inflation data tomorrow. Treasury yields declined ~3 bps this morning before positive trade negotiation developments spurred a risk-on move. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield closed 4 bps above intraday lows and up 1.5 bps today, now at 4.02%, while the entire curve closed within 2 bps of opening levels. Equities generally

Rates fall as US-China discussions commence. Lower than expected inflation expectations data fueled a decline in Treasury yields today, with markets betting that the Fed will be able to focus on the employment side of its dual mandate. US-China trade deal momentum may have also contributed, as reduced tariffs could mean lower long-term inflationary pressures.