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Trump Names Fed Governor Nominee Amid Chair Speculation

Yields close largely unchanged despite disappointing labor data. UST yields were down 1bp this morning as continuing claims reached its highest level since November 2021, highlighting greater difficulty of unemployed workers finding jobs. However, markets quickly moved past the print and two-year yields traded within a tight 3 bp range for the remainder of the day,

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U.S. Doubles India’s Tariff Rate

Yield curve steepens slightly following another Treasury auction. Treasury volatility was relatively muted today in a quiet session, though longer-term yields rose 2-4 bps on weak demand at a $42B 10-year UST auction. The 10-year yield closed 2 bps higher at 4.23%, and tomorrow’s 30-year auction could fuel another sell-off as markets absorb another wave of

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ISM Services Data Raises Stagflation Concerns

Yields climb on services sector data and a weak Treasury auction. UST yields closed 2-5 bps higher, with the 2-year yield now at 3.72% and the 10-year yield at 4.21%. The move was partially fueled by ISM services data, which came in below expectations and highlighted inflationary pressures that may force the Fed to further delay

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Trump to Appoint New Fed Governor and Bureau of Labor Statistics Head

Today’s data have little impact on yields. UST Yields were roughly unchanged to end the day, with the 2-year ending ~1bp lower at ~3.68% and the 10-year down ~2 bps to ~4.19%, after factory orders and durable goods orders data landed in-line with expectations and were largely overlooked. Instead, markets continued to digest last Friday’s

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Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Sends Yields Plummeting

Yields fall as economic figures point to a slowdown. In the aftermath of weaker than expected labor data, UST yields dropped by 13-17bps as the numbers pointed to a slow in hiring. Further amplifying the downward pressure was consumer sentiment and ISM manufacturing data, which also fell short of expectations, and pushed yields down another

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Core PCE Elevated in July, Nonfarm Payrolls Up Next

Yields steady despite surprises in core PCE, jobless claims. Despite a busy calendar and updated inflation data today, yields closed nearly flat. Higher than expected core PCE was less of a shock after yesterday’s QoQ core PCE data was 0.2% above estimates, while stronger than expected jobless claims data also had a negligible impact. As such,

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Fed Holds Rates, Powell Remains Hawkish

FOMC day sparks volatile session. Yields climbed 4-5 bps this morning following higher than expected ADP employment, 2Q GDP, and core PCE data. Price action then reversed course after two Fed voters dissented in favor of rate cuts, only for Chair Powell to fuel a Treasury sell-off shortly thereafter. Powell struck a hawkish tone in his

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Markets Risk-Off Leading Into FOMC

Treasuries rally on jobs data, trade news. JOLTS job openings decreased to 7437k, the first decline in three months and a signal that labor market strength may be deteriorating. Yields fell in response, as a weaker labor market could force the Fed to cut rates earlier and/or more aggressively than expected. Trade deal progress with China

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EU Trade Deal Headlines Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Dollar rises the most since May. Optimism stemming from the EU–U.S. trade agreement pushed the dollar to strengthen 0.80% against other G10 currencies. The dollar is still down YTD but it is now on track for its first monthly gain of 2025. Crude oil also rose following Trump’s comment that he would move up the deadline

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Markets Turn to Next Week’s FOMC Meeting

Yields close nearly flat. Today’s session was relatively quiet as yields traded within a 4 bp range across the curve, reaching intraday highs in the morning ahead of a small decline in the afternoon. The 2-year yield closed 1 bp higher at 3.92% while the 10-year yield declined 1 bp to 4.39%. Markets are largely looking

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