Calm Before the Storm

Participants await Wednesday’s economic calendar. UST yields were flat to ~4bps higher across the long end of the curve and major equity indices were muted today as investors prepared for volatility stemming from this Wednesday’s CPI data and post FOMC press conference. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but a consensus on the Fed’s dot plot revisions remains elusive.

Euro falls on French election drama. After his party’s defeat in parliament, French President Macron called for a snap election to try and reverse the results. Following the announcement, the Euro fell to its weakest level in the past month, partially offsetting it’s ~2% rally since mid-April, while French bonds and equities both declined.

U.S. pushes middle east ceasefire proposal. Secretary of State Antony Blinken begins a trip to the Middle East today, landing in Egypt to press for an agreement endorsed by President Biden. He will then travel to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Both Israel and Hamas disagree on the fundamentals of an agreement; Hamas wants a permanent cease-fire, but Israel is in favor of a temporary arrangement to exchange hostages.