Yields rise on strong labor data. Treasury yields climbed across the curve today as JOLTS data exceeded expectations, underscoring a resilient labor market. The 2-year yield closed 4 bps higher at 4.63%, while the 10-year yield closed 5 bps higher at 4.96%. Meanwhile, equities rose in a partial reversal of the recent chipmaker selloff, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing 0.36% and 0.83% higher, respectively.
JOLTS shows stronger labor market. September JOLTS data, released today, showed job openings climbing to 7.523 million, the highest level in four months and up from a revised 7.190 million in August. The quits level rose to its highest since March 2025 at 3.365 million. A higher quits level typically reflects labor market confidence, though some resignations were likely tied to the crackdown on immigration. The ratio of job openings to unemployed people, which the Fed watches closely as a gauge of labor market balance, rose to 1.06 in September, up from 1.02 in August. Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, expects “job growth to remain solid, but not strong, over the remaining months of 2026 as businesses juggle rising costs with resilient consumer demand and widespread AI investment.”
All eyes on US midterm elections. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives are up for reelection in today’s midterm elections, as well as about a third of the Senate. 57 million Americans had cast ballots during early voting heading into Election Day, surpassing the number of votes cast in the same period in the 2022 midterms. Experts expect Democrats to retake the lower chamber, and the current minority party needs four seats to take a majority in the Senate, though all but one of the contests are in states that voted for President Trump in 2024, with Maine being the exception. Economic frustrations are expected to play a major role in Americans’ voting decisions, as goods prices remain elevated due to persistent inflation and gas prices have climbed over the course of the year amid the Iran conflict. Markets will also digest election results for any signals about the trajectory of US fiscal debt.