Yields fall as oil continues to drop. Treasury yields declined today as oil prices continued to fall, further easing inflation concerns. Yields closed 4-5 bps lower across the curve, with the 2-year yield at 4.29% and the 10-year yield at 4.61%. Meanwhile, equities were mixed, with the S&P 500 closing 0.21% higher and the NASDAQ closing 0.22% lower, dragged down by a global selloff in semiconductor names. Brent crude fell over 4% to $84 per barrel as the US-Iran strike pause held and mediators signaled progress toward a deal.
Trump meets with Netanyahu as talks continue. President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu today, with an official saying the meeting was “extremely positive” and the two “reaffirmed their ironclad commitment to ensuring that Iran never has nuclear weapons.” Separately, President Trump told reporters that “I think we have a very strong position right now,” in reference to ongoing peace deal efforts with Iran. Trump reiterated his comments from yesterday that fighting would resume if an agreement could not be reached, though he added that “if I can avoid doing that, I’d like to do that.” Meanwhile, Iran has rejected Oman’s proposal for a temporary plan to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran seeks to control the bulk of the passageway.
Consumer confidence falls on weak labor market optimism, rising gas prices. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for July came in at 90.8, down from a revised reading of 92.2 in June and falling short of expectations of 92.3. The present situations gauge fell to 114.9, its lowest since 2021, as consumer perception of the labor market softened. Simultaneously, rising prices also remain a concern for households, as gas prices rose to approximately $4.10 this month, after cooling to $3.70 in June, driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board notes, that this moderation in consumer confidence was a continuation of “a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021.”
