Yields lower on Trump-fueled peace deal hopes. Treasury yields soared 4-5 bps overnight after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement during negotiations this past weekend and the US announced a blockade of the Hormuz Strait. However, price action reversed course throughout the US trading session, driven by Trump’s statement that Iran is still looking to make a deal. The 2-year yield closed 2 bps lower at 3.77%, while the 30-year yield closed 1bp lower at 4.90%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also rallied on the optimism and closed 1.02% and 1.23% higher, respectively, bringing stocks back to pre-war levels.
Trump says Iran reached out about peace deal after weekend talks failed. President Trump said this morning that Iran contacted the White House about re-negotiating a deal after the US moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, where the US would stop ships moving to and from Iranian ports. Trump specified that his administration had “been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal,” though he did not elaborate on who, or whether the outreach came directly from Iranian officials. Iran’s insistence on maintaining a nuclear program was a large driver of the failed weekend negotiations, though Trump remains “sure” Iran will eventually agree to the concession. Iran has reportedly proposed suspending their uranium enrichment for five-years, though the US had previously called for a twenty-year ban.
Existing home sales fall to nine-month low on rising prices. Existing home sales decreased by 3.6% in March, with an annualized 3.98 million sale contracts closed, the lowest level since June. The National Association of Realtors, who released the data, also revised its existing home sales forecast for 2026 to 4% from 14% previously. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year.” In addition to rising mortgage rates, selling prices have also increased, with the median selling price up 1.4% from a year prior. Meanwhile, existing housing inventory is now at a four-month high. All regions saw declines in contract signing, with the Northeast seeing the lowest sales on record since 1999, and the Midwest tumbling to match 2011.
