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Hedging Strategies from Q2 2024

After several false starts, the Fed appears poised to reduce policy rates for the first time since beginning its rate-hiking cycle in 2022.

Isaac Wheeler
Isaac Wheeler
Head of Balance Sheet Strategy

With a September rate cut now priced in, today’s forward curve closely resembles the curve we last saw in January.

Source: DerivativeEDGE

Regardless of the Fed’s decision in September and beyond, the market now clearly perceives the risk to rates as tilted to the downside. This shift has significant implications for depository hedging programs:

Institutions with pay-fixed swaps face a dilemma. On one hand, these hedges continue to contribute meaningfully to earnings, as several institutions shared during their Q2 earnings calls and in prior quarters. The recent price action has also made executing additional pay-fixed swaps even more appealing for those still concerned about a “higher for longer” scenario. However, these same hedges increase exposure to declining rates and could reduce earnings if the Fed cuts policy rates. We’ve previously discussed how institutions can restructure these positions to mitigate downside risk and we expect these discussions to broaden in Q3.

Depositories exposed to lower rates will begin to hedge in earnest, but will it be fast enough? For several years, asset sensitive institutions have seen earnings headwinds from receive-fixed swap and floor hedges. The institutions who have proactively hedged despite that negative carry may suddenly find themselves well positioned. A steepening yield curve may provide a more attractive entry point for additional hedges but as recent price action shows, the market can be unpredictable.

As we approach a potential inflection point in the interest rate cycle, these earnings calls provide insights into how peer institutions are positioning their hedging portfolios. Read on for our complete summary from Q2.

Isaac Wheeler
Isaac Wheeler

Isaac Wheeler is Managing Director and Head of Balance Sheet Strategy at Derivative Path, where he helps financial institutions structure and execute hedging transactions. Before joining the firm, Isaac spent five years at MFS Investment Management supporting execution of interest rate, currency and equity derivatives. He also spent time in MFS’s portfolio risk and technology teams. Isaac has a B.A. in Economics from Boston University.

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Disclaimer

The Term “Derivative Path” refers to affiliates, Derivative Path, Inc. and Derivative Path Hedging Solutions, Inc. Derivative Path, Inc. is headquartered in the State of California. Hedging advisory and execution services are provided through Derivative Path Hedging Solutions, Inc. (DPHS). DPHS is a Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered Introducing Broker (IB) and Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and member of the National Futures Association (NFA). This communication is for informational purposes only, is not an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or commitment for any transaction or to buy or sell any security or other financial product, and is not intended as investment advice or as a confirmation of any transaction. This communication is intended as an information resource only; Derivative Path has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of this communication. Any information contained herein is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy, and Derivative Path accepts no liability for its use or to update or keep any such information current. The content of this communication is subject to change at any time without notice. For additional information, you can read more here.

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