Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Rates fall in a busy session. Treasury yields declined gradually throughout today’s session, largely in response to uncertainty created by court rulings on Trump’s tariffs. Lower than expected core PCE (3.4% QoQ) and an economic contraction (-0.2% GDP) in Q1 also contributed to the move. Yields closed 5-7 bps lower across most of the curve,

Yields climb intraday, partially fueled by FOMC minutes. Treasury yields declined slightly overnight but rose throughout the session, closing 1-3 bps higher across the curve. The 2-year yield closed at 3.99% while the 10-year is currently 4.48%. Generally hawkish FOMC minutes contributed to the move, with investors suspecting that rate cuts could be delayed longer

Yield curve flattens on news out of Japan. Following the recent surge in long-term global bond yields, Japan is considering an adjustment to sovereign debt sales. Japan’s finance ministry sent a questionnaire to market participants today about issuance, suggesting that the nation may curb sales. The potential for reduced supply pushed the Japanese 30-year yield

Treasurys rebound after House passes Trump tax bill. After long-dated Treasury yields soared 30+ bps from late April, news that President Trump’s tax cut bill was passed by the House fueled a reversal. The long end of the yield curve dropped 5-8 bps today, signaling increased confidence in the U.S. despite expectations that the bill will

Yields surge following weak Treasury auction. Recent concerns about US debt, rekindled by the Moody’s downgrade from AAA to Aa1, continued in today’s session. A $16B, 20-year Treasury auction was awarded at nearly 5.05%, the highest yield since October 2023, reflecting weak demand. The long end of the curve rose 9-13 bps, with 10-year, 20-year,

Yield curve steepens as investors sell longer-dated Treasurys. Following yesterday’s U.S. credit downgrade that briefly sent longer-term yields soaring (but was ultimately reversed by the market close), the move resumed today. The budget deficit was again in focus with lawmakers reportedly running into hurdles during ongoing tax cut and SALT deduction negotiations. SALT advocates have reportedly

US credit downgrade fuels a brief Treasury sell-off. The yield curve bear steepened this morning after Moody’s downgraded the United States’ credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to concerns about government debt levels. 10-year and 30-year yields climbed as high as 4.56% and 5.03%, respectively, ~9 bps above opening levels. However, yields reversed course

Tariff deal optimism, inflation expectations drive a rise in rates. Treasury yields climbed 3-6 bps across a steepening curve today, with 2-year and 10-year yields now at 4.00% and 4.48%, respectively. The move was initially fueled by multi-decade high inflation expectations data, which overshadowed a continued decline in consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, reports that the U.S. and the

Rates plummet following PPI, retail sales prints. Treasury yields declined following this morning’s economic data, which showed lower-than-expected prices paid to producers and a slowdown in consumer spending. Rate cut bets surged as a result, and a 25 bp move is now fully priced in for September’s policy meeting (versus October as of yesterday’s market

Optimism from trade deals pushes rates higher. Today’s newly announced U.S. investment deal with Qatar fueled risk-on sentiment after deals with China, the UK, and Saudi Arabia had already spurred optimism. Yields climbed 1-7 bps with demand for riskier assets rising, pushing 2-year and 10-year yields to 4.05% and 4.54%, respectively. Both are at their highest