JOLTS Avoids a Blowout, Matches Expectations

Yields roughly unchanged after consumer confidence, labor data. UST yields fell ~2 bps immediately after this morning’s consumer confidence data, which was the weakest in five months, and JOLTS job openings data which were little changed from August, but the move later reversed and yields steadily climbed to end the day roughly unchanged. Today’s JOLTs report may be the last insight into the jobs market for the foreseeable future, as a potential government shutdown, starting tomorrow, could delay upcoming data releases. The 2-year yield ended 1bp lower at 3.62%, while the 10-year yield rose 1bp, closing at 4.15%. Meanwhile, equities rose today, with the NASDAQ up 0.30% and the S&P 500 up 0.41% to close out its second best September performance in 15 years.

JOLTS jobs data shows labor market holding steady in August. Today’s JOLTS jobs data landed mostly in-line with expectations, but didn’t entirely quell concerns of a softening labor market. The hiring rate in August fell to 3.2%, the lowest level since 2024, but job openings ticked up to 7.23 million, above estimates of 7.20 million and July’s 7.21 million, with accommodations and food services leading the openings charge. The ratio of vacancies per unemployed worker, one of the Fed’s favored data points, held steady at 1:1, although August marked the second straight month with slightly more unemployed people than job availabilities. The data also showed that the number of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs hit its lowest level this year, suggesting waning confidence in the ability to find new positions.

Fed speakers share rate outlooks. During an event today, Boston Fed President Susan Collins took a data-dependent stance, saying, “It may be appropriate to ease the policy rate a bit further this year – but the data will have to show that.” Collins acknowledged that the current environment is “highly uncertain” and with “higher and more persistent inflation, more adverse labor market developments – or both” could happen. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sees limited room for more rate cuts based on his inflation view. With a new wave of tariffs expected, Goolsbee believes both businesses and the Fed will pause decision making as they monitor the uncertain impacts. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson sees a more mixed picture than his two Fed counterparts, as he remains equally focused on employment and inflation risks, noting that he will take a fluid, data-driven approach in his policy outlook and decisions.