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Daily Market Color
March 26, 2024
Durable Goods Orders Bounce Back
Rates little changed, a more common theme in 2024. Swap rates and UST yields rose 3-4bps in the morning after durable goods ordersrebounded significantly from January. However, strong demand at today’s $67B 5y UST auction drove rates lower in the afternoon, and rates closed 1-3bps lower. Relatively muted rate moves have become more commonplace this year
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Daily Market Color
March 25, 2024
Financial Markets Look for Direction Ahead of Friday’s Inflation Data
Rates trend higher as markets await inflation data. Today’s relatively quiet rates session was highlighted by weak demand at a $66B 2-year UST auction where the ratio of total demand vs. the amount offered was under the 1-year average for UST auctions. Comments from Fed President Bostic were also impactful, as he stated that he expects
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Daily Market Color
March 22, 2024
Policy Meeting Week Closes with a Rate Decline
Swap rates fall to close out a busy week. Swap rates declined 3-7bps today despite little economic data and Fed commentary, as markets continue to absorb dovish 2024 Fed expectations that stemmed from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The fall cemented a near 20bp decline from this week’s highs. The yield curve has now been inverted for
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Daily Market Color
March 21, 2024
Global Central Banks Send Dovish Signals
European central banks headline in quiet US rates session. Switzerland’s 25bp rate cut and the BOE’s dovish commentary following their policy meeting highlighted amid a calm US rates session. US rates rose ~3bps on the short end of the curve after Philadelphia manufacturing and US PMI were above expectations in March but remain ~5bps lower since
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Daily Market Color
March 20, 2024
Fed Holds Policy Rate Steady, Still Expects Three Rate Cuts This Year
Rates decline after Fed reaffirms projection for three 2024 rate cuts. The Fed expectedly held the Fed Funds target range at 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting today. Their first dot plot of 2024 maintained the forecast for three rate cuts this calendar year, which pushed rates lower as the Fed avoided a more hawkish
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Daily Market Color
March 19, 2024
Markets Hope FOMC Will Offer Glimpse of The Future
Swap rates drift lower ahead of March FOMC meeting. Powell’s press conference and an updated dot plot will highlight tomorrow’s Fed meeting, where the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. Swap rates dropped 1-5bps today after strong demand at a $13B 20y UST auction drove the move lower. Swap rates are 30-60bps higher from the
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Daily Market Color
March 18, 2024
Swap Rates Hit 2024 Highs
Swap rates rise to 2024 highs ahead of this week’s policy meetings. Swap rates are set for a busy week as the Fed, BOE, and BOJ prepare to announce policy decisions, though only the BOJ is expected to change their policy rate. Swap rates rose slightly ahead of the BOJ’s announcement tomorrow, with most rates
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Daily Market Color
March 15, 2024
Markets Price in Delayed Rate Cuts Ahead of March Fed Meeting
Equities fall on quarterly market event. The SP500 and NASDAQ fell ~0.6% and ~0.9%, respectively, as a confluence of expiring derivatives positions known as the quarterly “triple witching” event largely drove today’s heightened market activity. UST yields were generally unchanged immediately following data releases this morning but ended the day ~2-4bps higher across the long end
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Daily Market Color
March 14, 2024
Long-Term Rates Rise 10bps After Another Hot Inflation Print
Swap rates soar after inflation data reveals elevated levels. Today’s Producer Price Index data pushed swap rates 6-10bps higher by market close. Rates are now 30-55bps higher year-to-date, with the largest gains coming in the belly of the curve. Initial market reaction to the morning data was mixed after retail sales were lower than expected
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Daily Market Color
March 13, 2024
PPI and Retail Sales on Deck
Rates rise ahead of more inflation data. Swap rates grinded 3-5bps higher ahead of tomorrow’s eagerly anticipated economic data. The swap curve bear flattened as strong demand at today’s 30y UST auction pulled long-term rates ~2bps lower in the afternoon. Attention has shifted toward tomorrow’s retail sales and PPI data, where the former is expected
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