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Daily Market Color
April 17, 2024
Yield Rally Stalls as Markets Digest Data, Fedspeak
Swap rates reverse course, fall 9bps across most tenors. After swap rates rose 25+ bps across the curve following last week’s elevated inflation data, duration buyers came to the forefront. Rates grinded lower throughout the session, highlighted by strong demand at today’s $13B 20y UST auction. Meanwhile, equities sold-off for the fourth straight session, headlined by NASDAQ’s
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Daily Market Color
April 16, 2024
Powell Suggests That Rate Cut Timeline is Delayed
Rates rise again after Powell and other Fed members offer hawkish commentary. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose yet again today as the post-CPI bond sell-off train keeps on chugging. Yields rose 5-8bps across the curve while the 2y UST yield touched over 5% momentarily before closing at 4.99%. The dollar had its best five-day
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Daily Market Color
April 15, 2024
Yields Climb on Strong Consumer Spending
Rate curve bear steepens while Goldman boosts bank stocks. Strong retail sales in March forced rates immediately higher by ~4bps as the Fed was left with more evidence of a robust economy. The 2y yield rose to within 1bp of the 5% threshold before falling throughout the remainder of the session to 4.92% while the long
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Daily Market Color
April 12, 2024
Bank Earnings on the Horizon, while Middle East Escalation Looms Large
Geopolitical tensions at the forefront again. Potential for an imminent Iranian attack on Israel spurred a risk-off session, with safe-haven assets seeing high demand and swap rates/UST yields plummeting. Rates grinded lower throughout the session and closed 6-9bps lower across the curve. Oil and the “fear gauge” VIX surged on the conflict escalation as both reached
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Daily Market Color
April 11, 2024
Producer Inflation Was Lower Than Expected in March
Rates decline before a weak UST auction drives an afternoon sell-off. March Producer Price Index figures were lower than expected, a positive sign after yesterday’s hot inflation print. Short-term rates immediately plummeted ~7bps after the data but grinded higher throughout the session to close nearly unchanged following weak demand at a $22B 30y UST auction.
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Daily Market Color
April 10, 2024
Markets Revise Rate-Cutting Expectations After Hot March CPI
Consumer Price Index (CPI) blowout drives 20+bp rate rise. Another day, another hot CPI print in 2024. Rates soared 20+bps higher as today’s inflation print sowed fear that elevated inflation will be persistent. The 2y UST yield (now 4.97%) rose 23bps and is just below 5%, a level not seen since November. UST yields are now
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Daily Market Color
April 9, 2024
CPI is Expected to Show Slowing Core Inflation Growth
Rates fall ahead of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI). Rates gradually fell throughout today’s session and closed 4-6bps lower as markets await CPI data. CPI is expected to show a slowdown of core inflation growth in March. Meanwhile, gold rose to a new all-time high while rates declined, now over $2,353 per troy ounce. In the
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Daily Market Color
April 8, 2024
10y Treasury Yield Reaches 2024 High
Rates continue last week’s climb. Swap rates and UST yields rose again after last week’s 15-20bp climb. Short-term rates rose ~4bps while the long end rose ~2bps. The 10y UST yield is at its highest level since November, now at 4.42% after reaching intraday heights of 4.46%. All attention is now on Wednesday’s CPI report,
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Daily Market Color
April 5, 2024
Yields Rise on Hot Labor Data
Rates rise 10bps as labor market proves robust. Elevated nonfarm payrolls and a decrease in the unemployment rate highlighted an ever-so-strong labor market. Policy-sensitive short-term rates closed 10bps higher while longer term rates rose 7-9bps, extending multi-month highs. Rates are ~20bps higher across the curve over the past few weeks and have risen 45-60bps year-to-date. Elsewhere, equities
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Daily Market Color
April 4, 2024
Geopolitical Risks at the Forefront Ahead of NFP Data
Rates fall ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. Swap rates and Treasury yields were higher throughout most of the day but tumbled in the afternoon, closing 2-4bps lower on the session. Geopolitical tensions drove the move, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel would act against Iran and “whoever harms us or plans to harm
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