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Daily Market Color
May 7, 2024
Yields Fall on Strong US Treasury Auction Demand
High Treasury issuance has not hurt bonds (yet). Yields fell 0-3bps today after a $58B auction of 3y USTs saw high demand. The results suggest that the 20-25bp rate decline over the past week could stick, as the Fed dismissed rate hikes as a likely next step at last week’s FOMC meeting, while weak labor data
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Daily Market Color
May 6, 2024
Equities Continue to Surge Following Last Week’s Shift
Equities record best 3-day gain in 2024. Today’s rates market activity was highlighted by Israel’s rejection of a cease-fire plan that Hamas previously agreed to. The Israeli Defense Forces later announced new airstrikes against targets in Rafah, a clear sign of still robust geopolitical tensions. Swap rates were little changed on the day after a
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Daily Market Color
May 3, 2024
Labor Market Shows Early Signs of Cooling
Rates plummet following labor data. Weak labor data forced swap rates ~15bps lower in the early goings of the session. However, rates grinded higher throughout the afternoon and closed 6-9bps lower, the 2y UST yield now at 4.81%, the belly of the curve near 4.50%, and the long end at 4.65%-4.75%. The move cemented an
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Daily Market Color
May 2, 2024
Yields Fall Ahead of Tomorrow’s Labor Data
Rates continue to fall in FOMC aftermath. Swap rates fell 9bps at the short end of the curve today and are now ~15bps lower over the past few sessions following Chair Powell’s presser. The 2y UST yield closed at 4.87%, the first close below 4.90% in nearly three weeks. Meanwhile, tomorrow’s labor data looms large, with
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Daily Market Color
May 1, 2024
Fed Holds Rates Flat, Suggests It Will Likely Take Longer Than Expected to Cut Rates
Rates fall on Fed Day. The Fed acknowledged a lack of inflation progress today but offered a more dovish tone than expected, which pushed swap rates and Treasury yields lower. The short-end of the yield curve fell ~7bps, pushing the 2y yield back below 5%. 10y-30y yields closed 3-5bps lower. Attention will now shift toward
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Daily Market Color
April 30, 2024
Yields Climb on Labor Costs as FOMC Meeting Begins
Higher than expected labor costs push rates 5-7bps higher. The employment cost index was 1.2% in Q1 versus the 1.0% estimate, which reinforced the notion that the Fed will approach any rate cuts with caution. Swap rates and UST yields immediately rose ~5bps after the data release and grinded higher throughout the afternoon. The 2y UST
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Daily Market Color
April 29, 2024
FOMC Meeting Awaits While Yen Falls to a New 34-Year Low
Rates/yields fall 2-5bps ahead of FOMC decision. May’s FOMC decision is just around the corner, where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady while offering a hawkish forecast. Rates fell 2-5bps ahead of the meeting’s commencement tomorrow, with the 2y UST yield at 4.98% after a ~2bp decline and the belly and long
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Daily Market Color
April 26, 2024
Inflation Was Slightly Higher Than Expected in March
Rates decline after inflation data avoids a significant upside surprise. Markets breathed a sigh of relief after personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were only slightly higher than expected on an annual basis in March. Treasury yields/swap rates reversed a portion of yesterday’s rise and declined 1-4bps across the curve in a bull flattening pattern. Equities climbed
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Daily Market Color
April 25, 2024
Quarterly Economic Data Pushes out Fed Cutting Expectations
Rate cut timeline delayed again. Rate cuts are not fully priced in until December after today’s PCE data came in well above forecasts, though November remains the odds-on favorite for the first rate cut. The data prompted a 4-7bp rise across the curve, with the 2y UST yield again hovering near 5%. The entire yield curve
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Daily Market Color
April 24, 2024
GDP and Inflation Data Could Provide a Volatile Rates Session
Long term rates rise after lackluster 5y UST auction. Swap rates were little changed at the short end of the curve but rose 3-4bps at the long end after today’s $70B UST auction saw weak demand. Durable goods orders contributed as well after data revealed a significant increase in March. A quiet few days for
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