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Trump Tariff Announcements Fuel a Bond and Equity Sell-Off

Yields climb on tariff developments. The yield curve bear steepened today after President Trump announced new trade levies against foreign nations. The long-end of the curve rose 3-5 bps, likely a reflection of heightened expectations for tariff-driven price pressures. The 10-year yield closed at 4.38% while 20-year and 30-year yields are near 4.91%. The short-end
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Labor Market Remains Resilient in June

Yields rise following strong labor print. The policy-sensitive front end of the yield curve soared today following June hiring and unemployment figures that were much stronger than expected. The data could allow the Fed to continue their patient approach toward rate cuts, whereas a weaker report may have forced their hand in September (or even July). 
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U.S. and Vietnam Reach Trade Agreement

U.K. bond sell-off pushes U.S. yields higher. After weak ADP employment data spurred a decline in Treasury yields this morning, price action reversed course on headlines from the U.K. 30-year U.K. gilt yields rose over 20 bps after Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not confirm that Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, would retain her role.
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Private Sector Hiring Exceeds Expectations

Rates rise on strong labor market data. Treasury yields were relatively flat this morning until JOLTs job openings came in at 7769k in May, well above the 7300k estimate and the highest level since November. Yields climbed ~5 bps in the immediate aftermath of the data, as the robust labor market could allow the Fed to
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Bessent Says Fed Should Cut Rates

Yields fall on Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments. The recent rally in Treasurys resumed today after Secretary Bessent said the U.S. will avoid issuing longer-term debt. The comments pushed the long-end of the curve 5-6 bps lower while the short-end declined by only 3 bps. 2-year and 10-year yields are currently 3.72% and 4.23%, respectively, both down
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Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Was Slightly Elevated in May

Rates rise slightly following inflation print. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was slightly higher than expected in May, creating some concern about the impact of tariffs on inflation. Yields rose 1-4 bps across the curve, the first daily climb of the week. The 2-year yield closed just under 3.75% while the 10-year yield closed near
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Yields Decline Again Ahead of Tomorrow’s Inflation Print

Q1 US GDP data fuels rate cut bets. Weak Q1 GDP overshadowed slightly elevated inflation data and fueled bets for earlier rate cuts. Yields dropped 6 bps at the front end of the curve, pushing the 2-year yield to 3.72%. Fed Funds futures now have a 25 bp move fully priced in by September’s meeting, and markets
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Powell Emphasizes that Tariff Impacts Remain Uncertain

Treasury yields decline again. Treasurys rallied in a relatively quiet session today, pushing yields to their lowest levels since early May. The 2-year yield closed at 3.78% after a 4 bp decline while the 10-year was nearly flat at 4.29%, and both are ~30 bps lower than their highest closing levels since May. Meanwhile, the
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Chair Powell Leaves the Door Open for Earlier Rate Cuts

Yields decline again following weak economic data, Powell comments. The recent Treasury rally continued today following weak consumer confidence data and relatively dovish comments from Chair Powell. Yields fell 1-5 bps across the curve, with 2-year and 10-year yields now at 3.83% and 4.30%, respectively, their lowest levels since early May. Fed funds futures are
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Iran and Israel Agree to Ceasefire

Yields decline sharply intraday but rebound in the afternoon. Treasury yields declined ~10 bps due to risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran-Israel war and dovish commentary from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. However, yields reversed course heading into the market close after Iran attacks on a US base in Qatar was viewed as a sign
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