Daily Insights and finance industry analysis

Yields rise following strong labor print. The policy-sensitive front end of the yield curve soared today following June hiring and unemployment figures that were much stronger than expected. The data could allow the Fed to continue their patient approach toward rate cuts, whereas a weaker report may have forced their hand in September (or even July). 

U.K. bond sell-off pushes U.S. yields higher. After weak ADP employment data spurred a decline in Treasury yields this morning, price action reversed course on headlines from the U.K. 30-year U.K. gilt yields rose over 20 bps after Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not confirm that Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, would retain her role.

Rates rise on strong labor market data. Treasury yields were relatively flat this morning until JOLTs job openings came in at 7769k in May, well above the 7300k estimate and the highest level since November. Yields climbed ~5 bps in the immediate aftermath of the data, as the robust labor market could allow the Fed to

Yields fall on Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments. The recent rally in Treasurys resumed today after Secretary Bessent said the U.S. will avoid issuing longer-term debt. The comments pushed the long-end of the curve 5-6 bps lower while the short-end declined by only 3 bps. 2-year and 10-year yields are currently 3.72% and 4.23%, respectively, both down

Rates rise slightly following inflation print. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was slightly higher than expected in May, creating some concern about the impact of tariffs on inflation. Yields rose 1-4 bps across the curve, the first daily climb of the week. The 2-year yield closed just under 3.75% while the 10-year yield closed near

Q1 US GDP data fuels rate cut bets. Weak Q1 GDP overshadowed slightly elevated inflation data and fueled bets for earlier rate cuts. Yields dropped 6 bps at the front end of the curve, pushing the 2-year yield to 3.72%. Fed Funds futures now have a 25 bp move fully priced in by September’s meeting, and markets

Treasury yields decline again. Treasurys rallied in a relatively quiet session today, pushing yields to their lowest levels since early May. The 2-year yield closed at 3.78% after a 4 bp decline while the 10-year was nearly flat at 4.29%, and both are ~30 bps lower than their highest closing levels since May. Meanwhile, the

Yields decline again following weak economic data, Powell comments. The recent Treasury rally continued today following weak consumer confidence data and relatively dovish comments from Chair Powell. Yields fell 1-5 bps across the curve, with 2-year and 10-year yields now at 3.83% and 4.30%, respectively, their lowest levels since early May. Fed funds futures are

Yields decline sharply intraday but rebound in the afternoon. Treasury yields declined ~10 bps due to risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran-Israel war and dovish commentary from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. However, yields reversed course heading into the market close after Iran attacks on a US base in Qatar was viewed as a sign

Trade war fears, Fed commentary fuel Treasury yield decline. The Wall Street Journal reported today that the US may revoke waivers that allow global semiconductor manufacturers to ship American chip-making equipment to facilities in China without obtaining licenses. The report rekindled trade war concerns and risk-off sentiment, pushing the 2-year yield 3 bps lower to 3.91% and