Daily Market Color

Personal Income and Spending Growth Boost US Growth Optimism

Equities grinded higher with oil while Treasuries and swaps sold off across the curve after better-than-expected US economic data boosted growth optimism.  The main driver was a Commerce Department report that showed an increase in personal income (0.3%) for the eighth straight month on strong wage growth (0.5%).  Consumer spending, which accounts for over 2/3 of the US economy, also rose 0.3% last month.  With wage growth on the rise, consumer spending is expected to remain strong and should provide the US economy a boost in 2016.  Higher wage growth also suggests the Fed was correct that a tightening labor market would eventually lift inflation.

Other US economic data was less robust.  New home sales in November rose less than expected and October’s increase was revised down, suggesting the housing market may be losing some momentum.  Today’s home sales data wasn’t impacted by the new mortgage disclosure regulation that caused November existing home sales released yesterday to plunge 10.5%.  The durable goods report was mixed.  Durable goods orders were unchanged after a 2.9% gain in October, but business investment declined for the first time in three months.

There are no scheduled Fed speakers today, so data and oil will likely be the main drivers headed into tomorrow’s holiday-shortened trading day.


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