Daily Market Color

Soft Chinese GDP Spurs Global Economic Concern

Rates fall after weak data overseas. Swap rates and Treasury yields fell across the curve today after weak Chinese data spurred an early move lower. A beat in NY state manufacturing pushed rates slightly higher before a late session rally, with the 2-year and 10-year UST yields falling 2-3bps to 4.74% and 3.81%, respectively.

Yellen comments on weak Chinese data, potential U.S. impact. China’s GDP miss triggered concerns about a potential global slowdown, with many now calling for more stimulus in the Chinese economy. Chinese GDP grew at 6.3% YoY, significantly lower than the forecast of 7.1%, while prices declined for the first time since 2020. Commenting on the situation, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that “many countries do depend on strong Chinese growth to promote growth in their own economies, particularly countries in Asia, and slow growth in China can have some negative spillovers for the United States.” However, Yellen also noted that while U.S. growth has slowed, she does not expect a recession. 

Day ahead. Retail sales will lead the session at 8:30 AM, which will be followed by industrial and manufacturing production figures at 9:15 AM. Fed members Barr and Gibson will make public comments at 10 AM.

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