Markets Quiet Ahead of Shortened Friday Session

Rates mixed ahead of jobs report. Swap rates and Treasury yields were mixed today across a flattening curve, with the 2-year yield rising over 5bps to 3.83% while the 10-year yield fell ~1bp to 3.31%. The move came after initial jobless claims surprised to the upside and Fed official James Bullard said that he does not think that tighter credit conditions from banks will push economy into a recession. Equities rose on the day, the S&P 500 rising 0.36% and the NASDAQ Composite climbing 0.76%.

Previewing nonfarm payrolls. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report, where most forecasts call for the economy to add fewer jobs (235k) relative to February (311k). Markets will be looking for confirmation of labor market weakness after JOLTs job openings data unexpectedly softened earlier this week. If nonfarm payrolls come in as forecasted, it would be the lowest headline figure we have seen since December of 2020.

Day ahead. Tomorrow’s session will be highlighted by nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and average hourly earnings figures at 8:30 AM. The swaps market will close early in observance of Good Friday.