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Rates Mixed Ahead of FOMC Announcement

After moving 10+bps in 24 of the past 32 trading sessions, yields/rates held within a steady range today as financial markets eagerly await tomorrow’s Fed decision and press conference following. The 10-year UST yield finished marginally lower, holding below the 3% level touched yesterday. Equity markets were similarly quiet, major indices shifting between small/gains losses before closing 0.2%-0.5% higher.

Job openings hit a record high in March. According to the March JOLTS jobs report, openings increased to 11.549 million from 11.344 million the month prior – a new all-time high. The March reading beat the forecasted 11.2 million increase after a record 4.5 million people quit their jobs. Layoffs totaled 1.4 million last month, with tight labor market conditions holding layoffs well below the pre-pandemic monthly average of 1.8 million.

Day ahead. Tomorrow’s FOMC announcement will be the highlight of the day. Futures markets are now pricing in a 0.5% hike, which would mark the first time in 22 years that the Fed increases its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. The April ADP employment, which is often interpreted as a preview of Friday’s jobs report, is expected to show a 383k jump in private payrolls, up from 455k in March.

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