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Daily Market Color
October 21, 2024
Rates Spike Alongside Rising Oil Prices
Swap rates rise significantly to start the week. The swap curve bear steepened today as the belly and long end of the curve rose over 10bps while the short end climbed 6-9bps. All Treasury yields are now above 4% other than 3-year (3.96%) and 5-year (3.99%) tenors. The move occurred gradually throughout the session and
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Daily Market Color
October 18, 2024
Global Developments Headline a Quiet Day for U.S. Economic News
Rates grind lower in a relatively quiet session. Swap rates fell 1-3 bps across the curve today in a slight reversal of yesterday’s retail sales driven rise. On the week, rates were roughly unchanged, with the sharpest move (+3-4 bps) coming from the long end of the curve. Meanwhile, crude oil continued its decline today, with Brent and WTI down
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Daily Market Color
October 17, 2024
September Retail Sales Highlights the Potential for a Soft Landing
Rates rise on strong economic data. Swap rates rose across a bear steepening curve today as robust retail sales and lower-than-expected jobless claims created doubt about the Fed’s future aggression with rate cuts. Jobless claims totaled 241k in the week that ended October 12 versus the 259k forecast. The data drove an immediate ~6bp spike
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Daily Market Color
October 16, 2024
Bank Earnings Signal Continued Economic Strength
Rates close nearly unchanged ahead of retail sales. Rates traded within a ~5bp span today as markets look ahead to tomorrow morning’s retail sales data, which is expected to increase to 0.3% in September from 0.1%. Treasury yields closed 1-2 bps lower across the curve, now down 4-8 bps over the past five sessions. Meanwhile, billionaire investor
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Daily Market Color
October 15, 2024
Oil Price Decline Drives Lower Treasury Yields, Inflation Expectations
Treasury yields and inflation breakevens fall alongside oil prices. News that Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu may avoid deliberate strikes against Iran’s crude oil infrastructure sent oil prices tumbling, with Brent and WTI crude down over 3.50% today. 2-year to 10-year inflation breakevens fell 5-7bps as a result, now between 2.02%-2.36% while the long end of
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Daily Market Color
October 11, 2024
Bank Earnings Season Begins on PPI Day
Rates close nearly flat on PPI day. Rates whipsawed in the aftermath of today’s inflation print, first falling ~4bps before almost immediately recovering to pre-data levels. Rates then grinded lower throughout the afternoon to close little changed. The swap and yield curves steepened this week, a common theme over the past few months; the 2s10s Treasury spread
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Daily Market Color
October 10, 2024
Markets Largely Shrug Off Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation
Rates fall despite relatively elevated September CPI. The short end of the swap curve closed ~6bps lower today despite higher-than-expected CPI in September. Most of the move occurred in the immediate aftermath of the data release as 2-year and 3-year rates plummeted ~10bps from intraday highs. Jobless claims data largely contributed to the move as
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Daily Market Color
October 9, 2024
September CPI Expected to Show Slowing Inflation
Rates climb ahead of inflation day. Swap rates grinded higher throughout the session and closed 5-7 bps above opening levels. FOMC minutes contributed to the move as several Fed officials were concerned about the 50bp rate cut that was announced last month. The move comes ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report, set for release at 8:30 AM
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Daily Market Color
October 8, 2024
Fed Officials Prefer a Balanced Approach to Rate Cuts
Rates fall slightly while equities climb to new all-time highs. Swap rates reversed course today after rising 40+ basis points from 2024 lows (reached in mid-September). The short end of the curve fell 3-4bps while longer term rates dropped 1-2bps. Meanwhile, Nvidia powered a broader equity rally today, driving the S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ
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Daily Market Color
October 7, 2024
UST Yields Hit Highest Levels Since August
Markets continue to digest labor data. Last Friday’s labor data remained top of mind today, driving a further UST selloff. UST yields climbed 6-7bps across the curve today, with the 10-year UST yield rising past 4% for the first time since early August. Equities declined today, driven by a broader technology selloff, with the S&P 500
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