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Consumer Inflation Remains Well Above the Fed’s 2% Goal

Rate curve steepens following CPI data. The short end of the rate curve plummeted 7 bps in the immediate aftermath of this morning’s inflation print, where CPI matched forecasts across all readings. The initial decline reflected increased confidence that the Fed will opt for a 25 bp rate cut in December. However, rates reversed course throughout
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December Rate Cut Remains Likely Ahead of CPI

Rates rise slightly for the second consecutive session ahead of CPI. Rates markets remained quiet today ahead of tomorrow’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI data. Rates closed 1-3bps higher across the curve after a ~2bp decline in the afternoon following a $58B 3-year Treasury auction. Fed Funds futures currently have a 25bp rate cut priced in
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U.S. Markets Eye CPI While Oil Climbs on Instability 

Rates rise gradually ahead of upcoming CPI print. Rates rose across a steepening curve today, with the short end closing 2 bps higher while the long end climbed 4-5 bps. The move occurred gradually and without a clear catalyst, and the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are now 4.13% and 4.20%, respectively. Markets are also eyeing
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After Labor Data, CPI Now in Focus

Rates fall in the aftermath of today’s labor data. December rate cut odds climbed after this morning’s labor data showed rising unemployment from October to November. Rates fell 8 bps at the front end of the curve in the immediate aftermath of the data and were little changed throughout the remainder of the session. Ultimately, rates
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Nonfarm Payrolls Looms Ahead of the Upcoming FOMC Meeting

Rates close nearly unchanged as markets await payrolls data. Tomorrow’s labor market data should play a significant role in the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, which will be announced on December 18th. Rates were little changed with all attention geared toward the data, with the short end of the curve up 1-2 bps and the long
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Optimistic Powell Fuels Markets After Soft Economic Data

Rates plummet following weak services sector data. Rates grinded higher in the early morning before dropping 8 bps following lower than expected ISM Services Index data. The gauge of services sector activity dropped from 56.0 in October to 52.1 in November, the fifth straight month of expansion but well below the forecast of 55.7. Higher prices
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Fed Commentary and Declaration of Martial Law in South Korea Highlight Today’s Session

South Korea martial law, labor data sways rates. South Korean President Yoon surprised markets today by declaring martial law after a prolonged period of political gridlock. The news pushed rates lower at various points throughout the session, though concerns later eased and rates climbed into the market close after Yoon quickly reversed the decision. Meanwhile,
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Fed Officials Rule the Calendar Today

Rates trade within a tight range while Fed officials discuss future policy decisions. Rates closed 1-4 bps higher across most of the curve after trading within a ~6 bp range throughout the session. Rates were largely unaffected by economic data that showed a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector, while dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller
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Black Friday Spending Includes Treasurys and Equities

Rates fall while equities extend all-time highs. Treasury yields fell ~5 bps across the curve in today’s shortened session. The move cemented a 20 bp decline over the week, largely fueled by speculation that Scott Bessent, Trump’s nomination for Treasury Secretary, will have a more moderate approach toward tariffs and government spending. 2-year and 10-year
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Markets Digest PCE Data Ahead of Thanksgiving

Rates fall despite elevated inflation data. Rates declined 6 bps overnight and were largely unaffected by this morning’s economic data. The second Q3 GDP report confirmed the first estimate of 2.8% quarterly economic growth (annualized), a slight deceleration from 3.0% growth in Q2. Shortly after the GDP release, PCE data fueled a 3 bp rise
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