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Daily Market Color
June 2, 2023
U.S. Labor Market Remains Strong
Rates jolt higher in response to labor data. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose across the curve today, jumping significantly higher after morning data and grinding higher throughout the afternoon largely driven by nonfarm payrolls data. The 2-year yield rose nearly 16bps to 4.50% while the 10-year yield closed ~10bps higher at 3.69%. The hot data
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Daily Market Color
June 1, 2023
Rates Fall Again as Nonfarm Payrolls Looms
Rates continue to descend as focus shifts toward Friday’s data. Swap rates and Treasury yields fell across a flattening curve today, the 2-year yield declining ~6bps to 4.34% and the 10-year yield closing at 3.60% after a 5bp fall. The 2-year yield is down over 22bps on the week, largely reversing last week’s ~30bp climb.
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Daily Market Color
May 31, 2023
Will The Fed Pause?
Swap rates slide following Fed speakers calling for a June pause. Swap rates and Treasury yields declined today after multiple Fed speakers suggested that a June pause is on the horizon. Philip Jefferson noted that while a skip may be imminent, it does not signify the peak, as, “Skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting
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Daily Market Color
May 30, 2023
Debt Deal Faces Congress
Rates plummet, reverse some of last week’s move. Swap rates and Treasury yields fell across the curve today, largely spurred by hopes that Congress will pass the debt-deal announced this weekend. Further fueling the move was a weak Dallas Manufacturing level, which came in at -29.1, much lower than the -18.0 forecast. The 2-year and 10-year
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Daily Market Color
May 26, 2023
Inflation Hot Again
Morning data pushes rates higher before afternoon Treasury rally. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose across the curve following multiple economic data beats, including PCE, personal income, and personal spending. The move was reversed throughout the afternoon, however, with rates falling into the close. The 2-year yield reached a high of 4.64% on the session but
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Daily Market Color
May 25, 2023
AI Boom and Debt Woes
Tech boom, economic data send rates soaring higher. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose across a flattening curve today, the move spurred by an AI-fueled tech boom and economic data beats. The risk-on mood was led by Nvidia Corp. after the company reported stronger than expected earnings and an upbeat forecast for the rest of the
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Daily Market Color
May 23, 2023
Rates Break Sell-off Streak
Continued debt ceiling woes spur risk-off sentiment. Swap rates and Treasury yields generally declined today, with yet another roadblock in debt-ceiling discussions spurring market concerns and an afternoon bond rally. The rally saw the 2-year and 10-year yields close well below their session highs at 4.32% and 3.69%, respectively. Debt-ceiling discussions continued Tuesday, but signs of progress
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Daily Market Color
May 22, 2023
Fedspeak Back in Force as Rates Hit Quarterly Highs
Swap rates and yields climb and hit multi-month highs. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose across the curve today, extending last week’s trend. The 2-year yield climbed another 5bps to 4.32% while the 10-year yield reached 3.71%, a level not seen since mid-March. The moves came alongside Fed commentary which dominated the session’s activity, and ahead
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Daily Market Color
May 19, 2023
Powell Clears the Way
Rates rise once again, bringing weekly move to 20+ bps. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose across the curve today, though they fell from intraday highs after Chair Powell’s dovish public comments. The 2-year yield rose just over 1bp to 4.27% while the 10-year yield rose ~3bps on the session, closing at 3.67%. Elsewhere, debt-ceiling negotiations
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Daily Market Color
May 18, 2023
Yet Another Hike on the Way?
June hike bets push rates higher. Swap rates and Treasury yields rose across the curve today after Fed commentary and economic data fueled bets for a rate hike in June. A beat in Philadelphia manufacturing and miss in initial jobless claims and continuing claims were among the data to push rates higher. Futures now suggest a
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