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Daily Market Color
September 22, 2023
BOJ Caps a Week of Central Bank Pauses
Rates retreat to end busy week. Swap rates and UST yields backtracked from the week’s highs, a 3-6bp reversal from the strong post-FOMC sell-off. The move came despite hawkish Fed commentary, as Fed members Daly and Bowman said that at least one more rate hike is possible. Bowman seemingly favors multiple hikes, as she stressed, “I
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Daily Market Color
September 21, 2023
Markets Digest FOMC Results
Rates mixed in FOMC day hangover. Swap rates and Treasury yields were mixed across a steepening curve today, with the long end of the UST yield curve furthering multi-year highs. The 10-year yield rose 9bps and closed at 4.49%, a staggering contrast to the monthly low of 4.08%. In fact, today’s 10-year TIPS auction drew the
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Daily Market Color
September 20, 2023
No Rate Hike, But Multiyear Highs in Treasury Yields and Swap Rates
Rates soar after FOMC pause. Swap rates and Treasury yields jolted higher after the Fed announced hawkish projections for 2024 and beyond. Though the rate pause was effectively locked in by futures markets prior to the announcement, the hawkish dot plot and press release immediately sent the 2y UST yield 10bps higher, while the 10-year
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Daily Market Color
September 19, 2023
Oil Jitters Pre-FOMC
Markets bet on “higher for longer.” Treasury yields were up across the curve today, with the 2-year up ~4bps to 5.09% and the 10-year up ~6bps to 4.36%, as traders bet that the Fed will hold rates higher to curb inflation driven by rising energy costs and after hotter-than-expected inflation data from Canada. Equities were down
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Daily Market Color
September 18, 2023
Is it FOMC Day Yet?
Markets muted ahead of FOMC decision. Swap rates and UST yields were little changed ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and dot plot release, which will be followed by BOE and BOJ hike decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively. With the U.S. and BOE decisions under the microscope, a Bloomberg survey conducted today saw 59% of
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Daily Market Color
September 15, 2023
Rates Rise Again Amid “Triple Witching”
Today’s data overshadowed by major options event and UAW strike. Yields were generally up across the curve today, with the 2-year up ~2 bps to ~5.03%, and the 10-year up ~5 bps to ~4.33%. Driving market moves today was the “Triple Witching” event, where large volumes of stock options, index futures and index options all expired
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Daily Market Color
September 14, 2023
Gasoline Prices Fuel Hot PPI and Retail Sales
Rates rise on PPI, retail sales. Rates grinded higher throughout the session after a strong PPI print, though the figures did little to change rate hike expectations, and futures still suggest a ~33% chance of a hike by November’s FOMC meeting. Both the 2-year and 10-year yields jumped 4bps higher and closed at 5.01% and 4.29%,
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Daily Market Color
September 13, 2023
CPI Clears the Way for Fed Pause
CPI can’t stop the rally. The much-awaited August CPI print came in slightly above expectations, but not enough to create concern among market participants. Rates jumped to their intraday highs following the release but rallied throughout the remainder of the session. The policy sensitive 2-year UST yield dropped over 5bps to 4.97% while the 10-year
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Daily Market Color
September 11, 2023
Consumers Tell Fed – Conditions Are Tightening
Rates inch higher to start inflation week. Swap rates and UST yields moved slightly higher today ahead of CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. A slight increase in 1-year inflation expectations contributed to the move, though the 2-year yield closed unchanged at 4.99% and the 10-year jumped 3bps higher to 4.29%. Elsewhere, the S&P, DJIA, and
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Daily Market Color
September 8, 2023
CPI and PPI Ahead
Yields little changed ahead of inflation week. Swap rates and Treasury yields were mixed across a flattening curve today, with the 2-year yield inching closer to the 5% threshold after a rise of ~10bps on the week. A surge in corporate debt issuance was a main driver of the week’s UST sell-off, and upcoming CPI
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