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Daily Market Color
July 26, 2024
Inflation Remains at a Multi-Year Low
Rates drop as Fed avoids blowout inflation report. Despite slightly higher than expected core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices in June, swap rates fell 3-6bps. The move marked a sigh of relief for doves who wish to avoid hot inflation prints, especially after the first several months this year showed higher than expected inflationary pressures.
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Daily Market Color
July 25, 2024
Second Quarter Economic Growth Blows Past Estimates
Rates fall despite strong GDP, higher than expected inflation data. Swap rates fell to their intraday lows overnight but rose throughout the remainder of the session after the release of GDP and PCE data. The session was more volatile than most over the past few weeks, but rates closed only 1-6bps lower on the day across
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Daily Market Color
July 24, 2024
US Yield Curve Hits its Steepest Level Since 2022
Yield curve steepens as markets bet on imminent rate cuts. The 2-year Treasury yield declined over 6bps today to 4.43% while the long-end of the curve rose 3-6bps, a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected. The differential between 2-year and 10-year yields is now ~15bps, the steepest level since
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Daily Market Color
July 23, 2024
Earnings Headline a Quiet Day
Earnings season dominates a quiet rates session. Swap rates closed little changed today, with strong demand at a $69B sale of two-year Treasury notes the largest contributor to rate moves. The auction led to a ~2bp rate decline at the short end of the curve, pushing the two-year yield below 4.50%. Meanwhile, major equity indices closed
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Daily Market Color
July 22, 2024
Swap Rates Have Muted Reaction to Biden News
Rates struggle for direction in the aftermath of Biden’s withdrawal. While Sunday’s news of President Biden ending his bid for re-election have dominated global headlines, swap rates held within a tight range before ultimately finishing 1-3bps higher across the curve. The roller coaster of presidential updates has yet to create volatility in fixed income markets,
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Daily Market Color
July 19, 2024
Rates Grind Higher Ahead of PCE Week
Rates continue their gradual climb while big tech finishes the week with another sell-off (and blackout). Swap rates rose 3-5bps today and are now ~10bps higher from the week’s lows, which were reached on Tuesday. The 2y Treasury yield closed the week just over 4.51% while the 10y yield is at 4.24%. That puts the 2s10s
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Daily Market Color
July 18, 2024
Rates Rise While the ECB Holds Rates Steady
Swap rates rise, equities continue to struggle. Swap rates rose 3-5bps today in yet another session where rates traded within a 5bp range. The move occurred despite higher-than-expected jobless claims data, and rates are now only 2-7bps lower over the past five sessions. Meanwhile, equities continued to sell-off, with the S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ
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Daily Market Color
July 17, 2024
Rates Steady While Markets Await More Data
Rates nearly unchanged while large cap stocks continue to struggle. Today’s session was relatively quiet for rates, which traded within a 5bp range and finished within 2bps of opening levels. Tomorrow’s jobless claims data could provide for a more volatile session, especially after Chair Powell recently highlighted the importance of labor data in determining the timing
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Daily Market Color
July 16, 2024
Retail Sales Show Strength While Swap Rates Fall 4-9 Basis Points
Swap rates fall despite strong retail sales. Rates rose by ~7bps immediately after this morning’s retail sales figures, which were significantly higher than expected across all measures. However, rates fell ~6bps from their session highs and closed 4-9bps lower across a bull flattening curve. The 2y Treasury yield is now just above 4.41% after touching
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Daily Market Color
July 15, 2024
Trump and Powell Dominate Today’s Headlines
Trump re-election odds sway markets. The swap curve steepened today on rising momentum that former President Trump will retake office, largely driven by this weekend’s failed assassination attempt. Many believe that Trump’s preference for tax cuts, increased tariffs, and reduced regulation could lead to economic growth and additional inflationary pressures, which pushed the long end of
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