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Daily Market Color

Nonfarm Payrolls Looms Ahead of the Upcoming FOMC Meeting

Rates close nearly unchanged as markets await payrolls data. Tomorrow’s labor market data should play a significant role in the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, which will be announced on December 18th. Rates were little changed with all attention geared toward the data, with the short end of the curve up 1-2 bps and the long
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Optimistic Powell Fuels Markets After Soft Economic Data

Rates plummet following weak services sector data. Rates grinded higher in the early morning before dropping 8 bps following lower than expected ISM Services Index data. The gauge of services sector activity dropped from 56.0 in October to 52.1 in November, the fifth straight month of expansion but well below the forecast of 55.7. Higher prices
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Fed Commentary and Declaration of Martial Law in South Korea Highlight Today’s Session

South Korea martial law, labor data sways rates. South Korean President Yoon surprised markets today by declaring martial law after a prolonged period of political gridlock. The news pushed rates lower at various points throughout the session, though concerns later eased and rates climbed into the market close after Yoon quickly reversed the decision. Meanwhile,
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Fed Officials Rule the Calendar Today

Rates trade within a tight range while Fed officials discuss future policy decisions. Rates closed 1-4 bps higher across most of the curve after trading within a ~6 bp range throughout the session. Rates were largely unaffected by economic data that showed a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector, while dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller
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Black Friday Spending Includes Treasurys and Equities

Rates fall while equities extend all-time highs. Treasury yields fell ~5 bps across the curve in today’s shortened session. The move cemented a 20 bp decline over the week, largely fueled by speculation that Scott Bessent, Trump’s nomination for Treasury Secretary, will have a more moderate approach toward tariffs and government spending. 2-year and 10-year
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Markets Digest PCE Data Ahead of Thanksgiving

Rates fall despite elevated inflation data. Rates declined 6 bps overnight and were largely unaffected by this morning’s economic data. The second Q3 GDP report confirmed the first estimate of 2.8% quarterly economic growth (annualized), a slight deceleration from 3.0% growth in Q2. Shortly after the GDP release, PCE data fueled a 3 bp rise
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Long End of the Curve Drops 13bps After Trump Chooses Bessent for Treasury Secretary

Rates plummet as markets celebrate Trump’s Treasury Secretary nomination. Trump’s election of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, announced Friday, fueled a 4-13bp decline in rates today. The decline commenced just after 7 AM ET and continued throughout the session, reflecting a pullback in the “Trump trade” as markets expect Bessent to offer a more moderate
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Economic Data Reclaims Top Spot on the Calendar

Strong service sector data pushes the short end of the curve higher. Rates traded within a 6 bp range today to close out a relatively quiet week that was headlined by an unprecedented escalation of tensions in the Ukraine-Russia war and generally strong earnings results from the world’s most valuable company, NVIDIA. Much of the movement
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Rates Rise After Several Fed Officials Offer Hawkish Commentary

Short end of the curve rises following Fed commentary. The yield curve held within a tight range for the majority of today’s trading session. The largest movement was seen in short-term rates, as the 2-year UST yield rose 3bps on the back of hawkish commentary from Fed presidents. In energy markets, crude oil prices climbed
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Nvidia Earnings at the Forefront, Ukraine-Russia War Escalates Further

Rates rise moderately while Nvidia earnings slightly disappoints. Ukraine’s use of UK-supplied cruise missiles against Russia did little to sway swap rates today, which closed 2-3 bps higher across the curve. A weak $16B auction of 20-year Treasury notes contributed slightly to the rise in rates; 20 and 30-year Treasury yields rose ~3 bps in
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