Yields climb as US-Iran tensions flare. Treasury yields rose across the curve today after the US and Iran launched attacks overnight, potentially threatening peace deal progress. The 2-year yield closed 4 bps higher at 4.08%, while the 10-year closed 5 bps higher at 4.49%. Meanwhile, equities declined as technology names slid, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing 0.74% and 0.89% lower, respectively. Oil continued its recent climb on the news of attacks in the Middle East, with Brent crude now trading around $98 per barrel, up from $92 at the end of last week.
US and Iran exchange strikes as peace talks stall. Overnight, the US hit an empty oil tanker headed towards Iran and reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks shortly after. Tehran also launched attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, as they targeted American facilities in the region. The US struck an Iranian military control station in the Strait of Hormuz in response, which the Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned as a ceasefire violation. On the diplomatic front, Iran says that negotiations remain at a halt until the Lebanon ceasefire with Israel is enforced, though President Trump insists that “communication between Iran and the US has not been cut off.” Despite these recent attacks, both nations claim that the current ceasefire agreement is still ongoing.
ADP report shows most jobs added since January 2025. ADP data released today showed private payrolls rose 122k in May, above forecasts of 120k and April’s downwardly revised 105k increase. The print marked the strongest monthly gain since January 2025, with ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noting that “hiring was more broad-based in May than we’ve seen in the last few years.” Education and healthcare led the increase with 57k jobs added, and eight of ten ADP tracked sectors posted gains, with hiring largely even across company size and geography. Richardson added, “the labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season.”
