Swap Rates Rundown

July and Early August 2025 Highlights

3 Things to Know:

• Rates march higher, then plummet. Rates rose ~15bps throughout July, only to fall ~20bps to start August after weak payrolls data. Rates are now just ~5bps above April’s YTD lows.  
• Labor market cracks. Payrolls growth was weaker than expected in July, while May and June figures were revised lower by 125,000 and 133,000 to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively. Excluding COVID-era adjustments, the June and May combined revisions were the largest on record, and indicated that labor conditions may not have been as strong as previously thought. 
• Powell calls current Fed stance appropriate. As expected, the Fed held rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, but two FOMC voters dissented in support of rate cuts. Still, Chair Powell said he views the Fed’s “moderately restrictive” approach as “appropriate” given uncertain tariff-related inflation risks. Following the latest labor data, futures markets now see a ~90% chance of a 25bp cut in September, vs. ~47% on the day of the FOMC meeting. 

Explore More:

• June Labor Data (+6 bps)
• 10-year UST Auction Results (-6 bps)
• Canada Tariff Threats (+8 bps)
• June CPI Data (+5 bps)
• Bessent Calls for Review of Fed (-9 bps)
• Japan, EU Trade Deal Progress (+8 bps)
• June JOLTS Data (-7 bps)
• July FOMC Meeting Transcript (+6 bps)
• July Labor Data (-20 bps)

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