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PCE Inflation Tempers In November

Rates fall after PCE data. US Treasury yields fell 1-5 bps across the curve today after PCE data showed inflation declined slightly in November. The 10-year yield ended at ~4.52%, 4 bps lower on the day, while the 2-year yield closed ~1bp lower at ~4.31%. Today’s decline only slightly offset an overall upward shift this week,
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U.S. Treasury Curve Continues Its Return to Normalcy

Yield curve steepens. Longer term U.S. Treasury yields rose throughout the day following strong GDP and quarterly inflation data and as markets continued to digest yesterday’s Fed meeting, while shorter term rates ended the day slightly lower. The 10-year yield closed ~5 bps higher at ~4.56%, while the 2-year yield fell ~4 bps to ~4.31%. The
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Door to a Fed Pause Swings Wide Open

Rates soar after Fed meeting. Rates jumped ~9-15 bps higher across the curve after the Fed signaled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts than markets expected. 2- and 10-year swap rates closed at ~4.19% and ~4.02% today, respectively, surpassing post-election peaks and reaching their highest levels since July. Equities suffered today on the Fed
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The Fed is Almost Guaranteed to Cut Rates by 25 Bps Tomorrow

Rates close nearly flat again on the eve of the Fed’s policy decision. Rates closed within 1 bp of opening levels for the second consecutive session, with market attention geared toward tomorrow’s policy decision and succeeding Powell presser. Rates gradually fell throughout the session despite this morning’s retail sales data, which was slightly stronger than
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Markets Look Ahead to Wednesday’s (Probable) 25 Bp Rate Cut

Rates close nearly unchanged ahead of a busy week. Swap rates closed within 1 bp of opening levels across the curve today, with markets largely awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC meeting decision and a packed slate of economic data. Fed Funds futures have a 25 bp rate cut priced in as 95% likely, and tomorrow’s retail sales
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All Eyes on Fed Meeting and PCE Data

Rates rise ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Swap rates climbed ~5-7 bps today to end the week ~15-20 bps higher across the curve as markets pared longer-term expectations for rate cuts. 5-year swap rates ended the day at ~3.91%, ~5 bps below post-election highs in early November. In equities, the tech-heavy NASDAQ index climbed ~0.96%
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Consumer Inflation Remains Well Above the Fed’s 2% Goal

Rate curve steepens following CPI data. The short end of the rate curve plummeted 7 bps in the immediate aftermath of this morning’s inflation print, where CPI matched forecasts across all readings. The initial decline reflected increased confidence that the Fed will opt for a 25 bp rate cut in December. However, rates reversed course throughout
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December Rate Cut Remains Likely Ahead of CPI

Rates rise slightly for the second consecutive session ahead of CPI. Rates markets remained quiet today ahead of tomorrow’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI data. Rates closed 1-3bps higher across the curve after a ~2bp decline in the afternoon following a $58B 3-year Treasury auction. Fed Funds futures currently have a 25bp rate cut priced in
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U.S. Markets Eye CPI While Oil Climbs on Instability 

Rates rise gradually ahead of upcoming CPI print. Rates rose across a steepening curve today, with the short end closing 2 bps higher while the long end climbed 4-5 bps. The move occurred gradually and without a clear catalyst, and the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are now 4.13% and 4.20%, respectively. Markets are also eyeing
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After Labor Data, CPI Now in Focus

Rates fall in the aftermath of today’s labor data. December rate cut odds climbed after this morning’s labor data showed rising unemployment from October to November. Rates fell 8 bps at the front end of the curve in the immediate aftermath of the data and were little changed throughout the remainder of the session. Ultimately, rates
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